First League · Russia · Central StadiumChelyabinsk vs Spartak Kostroma prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.27 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Spartak Kostroma to win @ 2.25 – our chance 49% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Chelyabinsk 1.1 – 1.5 Spartak Kostroma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Spartak Kostroma shade it despite being away from home – 49% to win, against 29% for Chelyabinsk.
Chelyabinsk have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.2 per game. Spartak Kostroma have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. Spartak Kostroma come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.1 for Chelyabinsk, 1.5 for Spartak Kostroma). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 60%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Chelyabinsk have won 0, Spartak Kostroma have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 6.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.27 is close to our fair price of 1.37. For a bigger price, Spartak Kostroma to win at 2.25 is our value angle (49% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Spartak Kostroma to win ✓ | 49% | 2.06 | 2.25 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.31 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 60% | 1.67 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 73% | 1.37 | 1.27 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.96 | 1.81 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.40 | 1.27 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 42% | 2.37 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Spartak Kostroma / FT Spartak Kostroma ✓ | 28% | 3.57 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✓ | 11% | 9.39 | – |
Form
Chelyabinsk – last 6
| 30 Aug | @ FC Sochi | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | @ Leningradets | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Aug | vs Torpedo Moskva | 0–4 | L |
| 9 Aug | @ Rotor Volgograd | 1–4 | L |
| 2 Aug | @ Volga Ulyanovsk | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Jul | vs Nizhny Novgorod | 1–2 | L |
Spartak Kostroma – last 6
| 31 Aug | vs Rotor Volgograd | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | @ Torpedo Moskva | 0–3 | L |
| 17 Aug | vs FC UFA | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | @ Ska-khabarovsk | 3–1 | W |
| 1 Aug | vs Enisey | 2–2 | D |
| 25 Jul | @ Tekstilshchik | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 7 Mar 2026 | Chelyabinsk v Spartak Kostroma | 3–3 |
First League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nizhny Novgorod | 17 | +37 | 46 |
| 2 |  Ural | 17 | +18 | 34 |
| 3 |  Torpedo Moskva | 17 | +16 | 32 |
| 4 |  FC Sochi | 17 | +6 | 32 |
| 5 |  Veles | 18 | +2 | 31 |
| 6 |  Spartak Kostroma | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 7 |  Shinnik Yaroslavl | 17 | +4 | 26 |
| 8 |  FC UFA | 17 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Volga Ulyanovsk | 18 | -3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Rotor Volgograd | 17 | +5 | 21 |
| 11 |  Chelyabinsk | 17 | -4 | 21 |
| 12 |  Arsenal Tula | 17 | -15 | 19 |
| 13 |  Leningradets | 17 | -11 | 18 |
| 14 |  Enisey | 17 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 |  Ska-khabarovsk | 17 | -5 | 16 |
| 16 |  KAMAZ | 17 | -9 | 14 |
| 17 |  FK Neftekhimik | 17 | -14 | 13 |
| 18 |  Tekstilshchik | 17 | -17 | 11 |
More First League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Chelyabinsk vs Spartak Kostroma?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win Chelyabinsk vs Spartak Kostroma?
On our numbers Chelyabinsk have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Spartak Kostroma 49%.
How many goals will there be in Chelyabinsk vs Spartak Kostroma?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Chelyabinsk vs Spartak Kostroma?
Chelyabinsk vs Spartak Kostroma (First League) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Central Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.