First League · Russia · Neftekhimik StadiumFK Neftekhimik vs FC UFA prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.42 · Lost ✗
Value bet: FC UFA to win @ 2.88 – our chance 37% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: FK Neftekhimik 1.2 – 1.2 FC UFA expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates FK Neftekhimik and FC UFA on our numbers – 37% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 26% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
FK Neftekhimik have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (2W 0D 4L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.8 per game. FC UFA have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.2 for FK Neftekhimik, 1.2 for FC UFA). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 51%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (12%), 1–0 (11%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.42 is close to our fair price of 1.53. For a bigger price, FC UFA to win at 2.88 is our value angle (37% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | FC UFA to win ✓ | 37% | 2.68 | 2.88 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 74% | 1.34 | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.94 | 2.02 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.42 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 61% | 1.65 | 1.51 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | 1.12 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.16 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT FC UFA / FT FC UFA ✓ | 20% | 4.93 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✓ | 12% | 8.68 | – |
Form
FK Neftekhimik – last 6
| 24 Aug | @ Rotor Volgograd | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Aug | vs FC Sochi | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Aug | vs Shinnik Yaroslavl | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Aug | @ Nizhny Novgorod | 1–5 | L |
| 1 Aug | vs Tekstilshchik | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Jul | @ Volga Ulyanovsk | 0–2 | L |
FC UFA – last 6
| 23 Aug | vs Enisey | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Aug | @ Spartak Kostroma | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Aug | @ Ural | 0–3 | L |
| 3 Aug | vs KAMAZ | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Jul | vs Ska-khabarovsk | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Jul | @ Tekstilshchik | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FK Neftekhimik and FC UFA.
First League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nizhny Novgorod | 17 | +37 | 46 |
| 2 |  Ural | 17 | +18 | 34 |
| 3 |  Torpedo Moskva | 17 | +16 | 32 |
| 4 |  FC Sochi | 17 | +6 | 32 |
| 5 |  Veles | 18 | +2 | 31 |
| 6 |  Spartak Kostroma | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 7 |  Shinnik Yaroslavl | 17 | +4 | 26 |
| 8 |  FC UFA | 17 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Volga Ulyanovsk | 18 | -3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Rotor Volgograd | 17 | +5 | 21 |
| 11 |  Chelyabinsk | 17 | -4 | 21 |
| 12 |  Arsenal Tula | 17 | -15 | 19 |
| 13 |  Leningradets | 17 | -11 | 18 |
| 14 |  Enisey | 17 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 |  Ska-khabarovsk | 17 | -5 | 16 |
| 16 |  KAMAZ | 17 | -9 | 14 |
| 17 |  FK Neftekhimik | 17 | -14 | 13 |
| 18 |  Tekstilshchik | 17 | -17 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for FK Neftekhimik vs FC UFA?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win FK Neftekhimik vs FC UFA?
On our numbers FK Neftekhimik have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and FC UFA 37%.
How many goals will there be in FK Neftekhimik vs FC UFA?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is FK Neftekhimik vs FC UFA?
FK Neftekhimik vs FC UFA (First League) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Neftekhimik Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.