First League · Russia · Neftekhimik StadiumFK Neftekhimik vs FC Sochi prediction & analysis
FC Sochi or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: FC Sochi to win @ 1.87 – our chance 63% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: FK Neftekhimik 0.8 – 1.8 FC Sochi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
FC Sochi travel as clear favourites – 63% to win, against 16% for FK Neftekhimik.
FK Neftekhimik have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (2W 0D 4L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.7 per game. FC Sochi have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. FC Sochi come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (0.8 for FK Neftekhimik, 1.8 for FC Sochi). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14%), 0–2 (12%), 1–1 (11%).
Our pick is FC Sochi or draw at a 84% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, FC Sochi to win at 1.87 is our value angle (63% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | FC Sochi to win ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.87 ▲ |
| Double chance | FC Sochi or draw ✓ | 84% | 1.20 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.90 | 1.79 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.38 | 1.26 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 52% | 1.92 | 1.81 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | 1.26 |
| Half-time result | FC Sochi ahead at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.28 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT FC Sochi / FT FC Sochi ✓ | 39% | 2.57 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 14% | 7.35 | – |
Form
FK Neftekhimik – last 6
| 14 Aug | vs Shinnik Yaroslavl | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Aug | @ Nizhny Novgorod | 1–5 | L |
| 1 Aug | vs Tekstilshchik | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Jul | @ Volga Ulyanovsk | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Jul | @ Arsenal Tula | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Jul | vs Veles | 0–1 | L |
FC Sochi – last 6
| 16 Aug | vs Volga Ulyanovsk | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | @ Torpedo Moskva | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Aug | @ Leningradets | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Jul | vs Arsenal Tula | 5–0 | W |
| 19 Jul | vs Spartak Kostroma | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Jul | @ Shinnik Yaroslavl | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FK Neftekhimik and FC Sochi.
First League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nizhny Novgorod | 17 | +37 | 46 |
| 2 |  Ural | 17 | +18 | 34 |
| 3 |  Torpedo Moskva | 17 | +16 | 32 |
| 4 |  FC Sochi | 17 | +6 | 32 |
| 5 |  Veles | 18 | +2 | 31 |
| 6 |  Spartak Kostroma | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 7 |  Shinnik Yaroslavl | 17 | +4 | 26 |
| 8 |  FC UFA | 17 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Volga Ulyanovsk | 18 | -3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Rotor Volgograd | 17 | +5 | 21 |
| 11 |  Chelyabinsk | 17 | -4 | 21 |
| 12 |  Arsenal Tula | 17 | -15 | 19 |
| 13 |  Leningradets | 17 | -11 | 18 |
| 14 |  Enisey | 17 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 |  Ska-khabarovsk | 17 | -5 | 16 |
| 16 |  KAMAZ | 17 | -9 | 14 |
| 17 |  FK Neftekhimik | 17 | -14 | 13 |
| 18 |  Tekstilshchik | 17 | -17 | 11 |
More First League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for FK Neftekhimik vs FC Sochi?
Our pick is FC Sochi or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win FK Neftekhimik vs FC Sochi?
On our numbers FK Neftekhimik have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 21% and FC Sochi 63%.
How many goals will there be in FK Neftekhimik vs FC Sochi?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is FK Neftekhimik vs FC Sochi?
FK Neftekhimik vs FC Sochi (First League) kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Neftekhimik Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.