Segunda Liga · Portugal · Estadio Municipal de Chaves
Chaves
Penafiel
Chaves vs Penafiel prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.35 · bookmaker 1.27 · Won ✓
Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 2.94 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Chaves 1.4 – 1.4 Penafiel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Chaves and Penafiel on our numbers – 37% for the home side, 39% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Chaves have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.0 per game. Penafiel have 12 points from their last 6 (4W 0D 2L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.8 goals (1.4 for Chaves, 1.4 for Penafiel). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 60%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.27 is close to our fair price of 1.35. For a bigger price, Penafiel to win at 2.94 is our value angle (39% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Penafiel to win ✓ | 39% | 2.58 | 2.94 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.68 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.35 | 1.27 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 50% | 1.99 | 1.76 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 72% | 1.40 | 1.23 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 42% | 2.41 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Penafiel / FT Penafiel ✗ | 22% | 4.52 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.45 | – |
Form
Chaves – last 6
| 31 Oct | @ Benfica B | 1–3 | L |
| 23 Oct | vs Vizela | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Oct | vs Os Marialvas | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ Lusitânia Lourosa | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Oct | @ Farense | 0–4 | L |
| 20 Sep | @ Guarda | 3–2 | W |
Penafiel – last 6
| 2 Nov | vs Feirense | 1–0 | W |
| 24 Oct | @ Farense | 4–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Leça | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs AVS | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | @ Oliveirense | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Felgueiras 1932 | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chaves and Penafiel.
More Segunda Liga predictions
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Leixoes3
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✗
FT
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Amarante1
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
73%@1.24
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Chaves vs Penafiel?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win Chaves vs Penafiel?
On our numbers Chaves have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Penafiel 39%.
How many goals will there be in Chaves vs Penafiel?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Chaves vs Penafiel?
Chaves vs Penafiel (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Chaves.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.