Segunda Liga · Portugal · Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra
Academica
Amarante
Academica vs Amarante prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.24 · Won ✓
Value bet: Amarante to win @ 3.42 – our chance 31% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Academica 1.5 – 1.1 Amarante expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Academica hold the edge on home soil with a 47% chance of winning, against 31% for Amarante.
Academica have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.3 per game. Amarante have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded. Academica come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.5 for Academica, 1.1 for Amarante). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 56%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%).
In their last 2 meetings, Academica have won 1, Amarante have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.24 is close to our fair price of 1.36. For a bigger price, Amarante to win at 3.42 is our value angle (31% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Academica to win ✗ | 47% | 2.13 | 2.04 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 56% | 1.78 | 1.78 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.39 | 1.27 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 53% | 1.90 | 1.76 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.36 | 1.24 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.32 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Academica / FT Academica ✗ | 26% | 3.78 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 9.08 | – |
Form
Academica – last 6
| 1 Nov | @ Vizela | 1–2 | L |
| 24 Oct | vs Leixoes | 4–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Amarante | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ União de Leiria | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | @ Real | 4–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Benfica B | 0–3 | L |
Amarante – last 6
| 31 Oct | vs FC Porto B | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Oct | @ Torreense | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | @ Academica | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Portimonense | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | @ Ponte da Barca | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs União de Leiria | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 17 Oct 2026 | Academica v Amarante | 3–2 |
| 29 Mar 2026 | Amarante v Academica | 1–1 |
More Segunda Liga predictions
Felgueiras 19323
Leixoes3
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
76%@1.21
✗
FT
Chaves2
Penafiel3
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
74%@1.27
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Academica vs Amarante?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Academica vs Amarante?
On our numbers Academica have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Amarante 31%.
How many goals will there be in Academica vs Amarante?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Academica vs Amarante?
Academica vs Amarante (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.