Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Torreense to win @ 1.80 – our chance 65% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultTorreense to win ✓65% · @1.80
Double chanceTorreense or draw ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓17% · fair 6.06
Torreense vs Amarante preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda Liga sees Torreense take on Amarante on Monday 26 October, kicking off at 21:45 (WAT) at Estadio Manuel Marques. Torreense are 13th with 10 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Amarante sit 14th on 9 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Torreense's last 5: LLLWD Most recently they lost to Ferencvarosi TC 1–4 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Amarante's last 5: LLWDL Most recently they lost to Academica 2–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Torreense and 0.6 for Amarante. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 48%.
Value angle: Torreense to win at 1.80 – 65% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Torreense or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Torreense 1–0 Amarante. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Torreense65%fair 1.54 · @1.80
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.20
Amarante13%fair 7.99 · @4.20
2.36Expected goals
1.75Torreense xG
0.61Amarante xG
48%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–110%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Torreense 1.7 – 0.6 Amarante expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Torreense to win✓
65%
1.54
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Torreense or draw✓
87%
1.14
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Half-time result
Torreense ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Torreense / FT Torreense✓
41%
2.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
17%
6.06
–
Form
Torreense – last 6
LLLWDW
22 Oct
@ Ferencvarosi TC
1–4
L
15 Oct
vs Sunderland
1–2
L
10 Oct
@ Tondela
0–1
L
17 Sep
@ Lillestrom
2–1
W
11 Sep
vs Leixoes
0–0
D
5 Sep
@ Benfica B
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Amarante – last 6
LLWDLW
17 Oct
@ Academica
2–3
L
10 Oct
vs Portimonense
1–2
L
20 Sep
@ Ponte da Barca
2–0
W
13 Sep
vs União de Leiria
2–2
D
6 Sep
@ Leixoes
1–3
L
30 Aug
vs Benfica B
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Torreense and Amarante.
Our pick is Torreense or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Torreense vs Amarante?
On our numbers Torreense have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Amarante 13%.
How many goals will there be in Torreense vs Amarante?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Torreense vs Amarante?
Our predicted score is Torreense 1–0 Amarante, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Torreense vs Amarante?
Torreense vs Amarante (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Monday 26 October 2026 at 21:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Marques.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
