Segunda Liga · Portugal · Estádio de São LuísFarense vs Chaves prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Farense 1.4 – 1.2 Chaves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Farense hold the edge on home soil with a 46% chance of winning, against 32% for Chaves.
Farense have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.8 per game. Chaves have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded. Farense come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.4 for Farense, 1.2 for Chaves). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 58%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Farense have won 0, Chaves have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 58% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.73 is close to our fair price of 1.71.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Farense to win ✓ | 46% | 2.20 | 2.15 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 58% | 1.71 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.36 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 52% | 1.93 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 74% | 1.36 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.32 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Farense / FT Farense ✓ | 26% | 3.88 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 9.32 | – |
Form
Farense – last 6
| 20 Sep | @ Sacavenense | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ AVS | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | @ Sporting CP B | 1–2 | L |
| 24 Aug | vs Felgueiras 1932 | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | @ FC Porto B | 3–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | vs Torreense | 2–1 | W |
Chaves – last 6
| 20 Sep | @ Guarda | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Feirense | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | @ Felgueiras 1932 | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | vs AVS | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | @ Sporting CP B | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | vs Academica | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
| 22 Feb 2026 | Chaves v Farense | 2–0 |
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penafiel | 10 | +12 | 22 |
| 2 |  Sporting CP B | 10 | +8 | 22 |
| 3 |  Benfica B | 10 | +6 | 20 |
| 4 |  Lusitânia Lourosa | 10 | +6 | 19 |
| 5 |  União de Leiria | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 |  Academica | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 |  Tondela | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  Farense | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Vizela | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Portimonense | 10 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 |  AVS | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 12 |  Leixoes | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 |  Torreense | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 |  Amarante | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 |  Felgueiras 1932 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 |  FC Porto B | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Chaves | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 |  Feirense | 10 | -8 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Farense vs Chaves?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Farense vs Chaves?
On our numbers Farense have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Chaves 32%.
How many goals will there be in Farense vs Chaves?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Farense vs Chaves?
Farense vs Chaves (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio de São Luís.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.