Primeira Liga · Portugal · Parque Joaquim de Almeida FreitasMoreirense vs Estrela prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Moreirense 1.6 – 1.6 Estrela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Moreirense and Estrela on our numbers – 37% for the home side, 39% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Moreirense have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.5 per game. Estrela have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
We expect around 3.2 goals (1.6 for Moreirense, 1.6 for Estrela). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 1–2 (8%), 2–1 (8%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.73 is better than our fair price of 1.57, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Estrela to win ✗ | 39% | 2.59 | 2.45 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 64% | 1.57 | 1.73 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 62% | 1.60 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 60% | 1.67 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 38% | 2.63 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Estrela / FT Estrela ✗ | 23% | 4.28 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 8% | 11.84 | – |
Form
Moreirense – last 6
| 25 Oct | @ Estoril | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | @ AVS | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs GIL Vicente | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | @ Vitória SC | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sep | vs Maritimo | 3–1 | W |
| 9 Sep | vs Benfica | 0–4 | L |
Estrela – last 6
| 24 Oct | vs Casa Pia | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | @ Fazendense | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ Arouca | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Academico Viseu | 0–2 | L |
| 14 Sep | @ Rio Ave | 3–3 | D |
| 10 Sep | vs SC Braga | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Moreirense and Estrela.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 11 | +22 | 33 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 11 | +20 | 28 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 11 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 11 | +2 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 11 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 |  Famalicao | 11 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 |  Nacional | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 14 |  Vitória SC | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 |  Maritimo | 10 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 11 | -14 | 8 |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 11 | -15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | -14 | 2 |
More Primeira Liga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Moreirense vs Estrela?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Moreirense vs Estrela?
On our numbers Moreirense have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Estrela 39%.
How many goals will there be in Moreirense vs Estrela?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
When is Moreirense vs Estrela?
Moreirense vs Estrela (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.