Bundesliga · Germany · Mewa Arena

FSV Mainz 05

LLLWL

1–2

Bayern München

WDWWD

FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München prediction & analysis

77%

Footrivo pick

Over 2.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

8/10Rating

1.25Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultBayern München to win ✓70% · @1.30

Double chanceBayern München or draw ✓87% · @1.10

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.50

GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓8% · fair 12.07

Win chances

FSV Mainz 0513%fair 7.58 · @8.00

Draw17%fair 5.91 · @6.25

Bayern München70%fair 1.43 · @1.30

4.16Expected goals

1.27FSV Mainz 05 xG

2.89Bayern München xG

64%Both score

77%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–28%

1–38%

0–27%

0–36%

1–46%

1–16%

From our goals model: FSV Mainz 05 1.3 – 2.9 Bayern München expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Bayern München travel as clear favourites – 70% to win, against 13% for FSV Mainz 05.

FSV Mainz 05 have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (2W 0D 4L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.2 per game. Bayern München have 14 points from their last 6 (4W 2D 0L), averaging 3.5 scored and 1.2 conceded. Bayern München come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 4.2 goals (1.3 for FSV Mainz 05, 2.9 for Bayern München). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 77% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–2 (8%), 1–3 (8%), 0–2 (7%).

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.29.

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Bayern München to win ✓	70%	1.43	1.30
Double chance	Bayern München or draw ✓	87%	1.15	1.10
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	64%	1.57	1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	91%	1.10	1.07
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	77%	1.29	1.25
Over/under 3.5 goals	Over 3.5 goals ✗	58%	1.72	1.67
Half-time result	Bayern München ahead at half-time ✓	54%	1.85	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Bayern München / FT Bayern München ✓	49%	2.06	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✓	8%	12.07	–

Form

FSV Mainz 05 – last 6

LLLWLW

30 Oct	@ SV Elversberg	1–4	L
27 Oct	@ VfL Bochum	0–2	L
24 Oct	vs Werder Bremen	2–3	L
17 Oct	@ FC Schalke 04	1–0	W
10 Oct	vs Bayer Leverkusen	3–4	L
3 Oct	@ Waldhof Mannheim	3–0	W

1.7Scored / game

2.2Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Bayern München – last 6

WDWWDW

3 Nov	@ Atletico Madrid	2–0	W
31 Oct	vs Borussia Dortmund	2–2	D
28 Oct	vs 1. FC Magdeburg	6–1	W
25 Oct	@ SC Freiburg	3–1	W
21 Oct	vs Arsenal	2–2	D
17 Oct	vs RB Leipzig	6–1	W

3.5Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

83%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München.

Bundesliga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	+20	21
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	+9	21
3	SC Freiburg	9	6	1	2	+10	19
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	+14	18
5	Bayer Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+3	16
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	+2	15
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	-1	13
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	0	12
9	1899 Hoffenheim	9	4	0	5	-1	12
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	-5	12
11	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	-10	12
12	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	-1	10
13	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	-3	10
14	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	0	9
15	1. FC Köln	9	2	3	4	-4	9
16	Union Berlin	9	1	4	4	-14	7
17	FC Schalke 04	9	1	3	5	-6	6
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	-13	4

More Bundesliga predictions

League hub →

Borussia Dortmund2

SV Elversberg1 681715 O2.5Over 2.5 goals 68%@1.36 ✓ FT

RB Leipzig5

FC Augsburg2 641917 O2.5Over 2.5 goals 75%@1.28 ✓ FT

SC Paderborn 072

Eintracht Frankfurt2 372142 GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.44 ✓ FT

VfB Stuttgart1

Werder Bremen0 641719 1VfB Stuttgart to win 64%@1.80 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?

On our numbers FSV Mainz 05 have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Bayern München 70%.

How many goals will there be in FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?

We expect about 4.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 77% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.

When is FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?

FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München (Bundesliga) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Mewa Arena.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.