Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Estepona to win @ 1.91 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultEstepona to win ✓58% · @1.91
Double chanceEstepona or draw ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.75
Estepona vs Don Benito preview and prediction
The match
Estepona host Don Benito in the Segunda División RFEF Group 4 on Saturday 3 October, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT). Estepona are 8th with 15 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Don Benito sit 2nd on 20 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Estepona's last 5: LWLDD Most recently they lost to Tenerife II 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Don Benito's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Sanluqueño 1–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Don Benito arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Estepona and 0.7 for Don Benito. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Estepona 58%, draw 23%, Don Benito 19%.
Safer route: Estepona or draw (81%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Estepona to win at 1.91 – 58% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Estepona or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Estepona 1–0 Don Benito. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Estepona58%fair 1.72 · @1.91
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.20
Don Benito19%fair 5.33 · @3.60
2.13Expected goals
1.46Estepona xG
0.67Don Benito xG
53%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–013%
0–012%
1–112%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: Estepona 1.5 – 0.7 Don Benito expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Estepona to win✓
58%
1.72
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Estepona or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Estepona / FT Estepona✓
34%
2.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.75
–
Form
Estepona – last 6
LWLDDW
27 Sep
@ Tenerife II
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ Puente Genil
2–0
W
12 Sep
vs Linares Deportivo
1–4
L
5 Sep
vs Xerez
0–0
D
3 May
@ Yeclano
1–1
D
26 Apr
vs Águilas
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Don Benito – last 6
WDWWWW
26 Sep
vs Sanluqueño
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Xerez
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Las Palmas II
3–0
W
6 Sep
@ Antoniano
2–1
W
3 May
vs Diocesano
8–1
W
12 Apr
vs Santa Amalia
1–0
W
2.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estepona and Don Benito.
What is the prediction for Estepona vs Don Benito?
Our pick is Estepona or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Estepona vs Don Benito?
On our numbers Estepona have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Don Benito 19%.
How many goals will there be in Estepona vs Don Benito?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estepona vs Don Benito?
Our predicted score is Estepona 1–0 Don Benito, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Estepona vs Don Benito?
Estepona vs Don Benito (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
