Segunda División RFEF Group 2 · SpainNáxara vs Peña Sport prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Fair pick · fair odds 1.92 · bookmaker 1.80 · Won ✓
Value bet: Peña Sport to win @ 3.25 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Náxara 1.3 – 1.3 Peña Sport expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Náxara and Peña Sport on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 23% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Náxara have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.0 per game. Peña Sport have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded. Peña Sport come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.3 for Náxara, 1.3 for Peña Sport). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 49%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 52% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.80 is close to our fair price of 1.92. For a bigger price, Peña Sport to win at 3.25 is our value angle (37% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Náxara to win ✓ | 40% | 2.53 | 2.00 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.95 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 74% | 1.36 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.92 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 43% | 2.33 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Náxara / FT Náxara ✗ | 22% | 4.56 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 10% | 10.29 | – |
Form
Náxara – last 6
| 27 Sep | vs Barbastro | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | @ Reddis | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Olot | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | @ Barcelona B | 0–5 | L |
| 14 Aug | @ Haro Deportivo | 4–1 | W |
| 2 May | @ Eibar II | 2–3 | L |
Peña Sport – last 6
| 3 Oct | vs SD Logroñés | 4–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | @ Barcelona B | 0–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Espanyol II | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Manresa | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Utebo | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Aug | @ Mutilvera | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Náxara and Peña Sport.
Segunda División RFEF Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona B | 10 | +15 | 25 |
| 2 |  Terrassa | 10 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Espanyol II | 9 | +14 | 20 |
| 4 |  Girona II | 10 | +9 | 19 |
| 5 |  Olot | 10 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Ebro | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 7 |  Osasuna II | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |  Manresa | 10 | +3 | 14 |
| 9 |  Reddis | 10 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 |  Utebo | 10 | +1 | 12 |
| 11 |  Peña Sport | 10 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 |  Barbastro | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Tudelano | 10 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 |  UD Logroñés II | 10 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 |  SD Logroñés | 10 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Náxara | 9 | -10 | 6 |
| 17 |  Arnedo | 10 | -13 | 6 |
| 18 |  Calamocha | 10 | -14 | 5 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 2 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Náxara vs Peña Sport?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Náxara vs Peña Sport?
On our numbers Náxara have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Peña Sport 37%.
How many goals will there be in Náxara vs Peña Sport?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Náxara vs Peña Sport?
Náxara vs Peña Sport (Segunda División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.