Second League · Bulgaria · Spartak StadiumVihren vs Nesebar prediction & analysis
Vihren to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Vihren 2.5 – 1.0 Nesebar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Vihren are clear favourites at home with a 68% chance of winning, against 11% for Nesebar.
Vihren have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.7 and conceding 1.2 per game. Nesebar have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 2.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 3.5 goals (2.5 for Vihren, 1.0 for Nesebar). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 3–0 (8%).
Our pick is Vihren to win at a 68% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is close to our fair price of 1.47. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 1.80 is our value angle (61% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Vihren to win ✓ | 68% | 1.47 | 1.44 |
| Double chance | Vihren or draw ✓ | 89% | 1.13 | 1.10 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 61% | 1.65 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 67% | 1.49 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.83 | – |
| Half-time result | Vihren ahead at half-time ✗ | 52% | 1.93 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Vihren / FT Vihren ✗ | 47% | 2.13 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✓ | 10% | 10.33 | – |
Form
Vihren – last 6
| 21 Sep | @ Sportist Svoge | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Dobrudzha | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Sep | @ Montana | 4–1 | W |
| 3 Sep | vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 4–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | @ Spartak Pleven | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | vs Fratria | 2–2 | D |
Nesebar – last 6
| 20 Sep | vs Beroe | 4–3 | W |
| 15 Sep | @ Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Rilski Sportist | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Sep | @ Marek | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Yantra 2019 | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | vs Pirin Blagoevgrad | 7–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vihren and Nesebar.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CSKA Sofia II | 15 | +18 | 31 |
| 2 |  Vihren | 15 | +15 | 29 |
| 3 |  Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 4 |  Fratria | 14 | +10 | 25 |
| 5 |  Yantra 2019 | 15 | +5 | 24 |
| 6 |  Hebar 1918 | 15 | +7 | 23 |
| 7 |  Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 15 | +1 | 23 |
| 8 |  Beroe | 15 | +3 | 22 |
| 9 |  Ludogorets II | 14 | +6 | 22 |
| 10 |  Spartak Pleven | 15 | -9 | 21 |
| 11 |  Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 14 | +1 | 21 |
| 12 |  Rilski Sportist | 15 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Marek | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 14 |  Nesebar | 15 | -1 | 18 |
| 15 |  Montana | 15 | -11 | 15 |
| 16 |  Sportist Svoge | 15 | -9 | 12 |
| 17 |  Dobrudzha | 14 | -13 | 10 |
| 18 |  Pirin Blagoevgrad | 15 | -33 | 2 |
More Second League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Vihren vs Nesebar?
Our pick is Vihren to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Vihren vs Nesebar?
On our numbers Vihren have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Nesebar 11%.
How many goals will there be in Vihren vs Nesebar?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
When is Vihren vs Nesebar?
Vihren vs Nesebar (Second League) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Spartak Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.