Second League · Bulgaria · Stadion BonchukMarek vs Pirin Blagoevgrad prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.24 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Marek 2.0 – 0.8 Pirin Blagoevgrad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Marek are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 14% for Pirin Blagoevgrad.
Marek have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2 per game. Pirin Blagoevgrad have 0 points from their last 6 (0W 0D 6L), averaging 0.3 scored and 3.2 conceded. Marek come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.8 goals (2.0 for Marek, 0.8 for Pirin Blagoevgrad). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.24 is close to our fair price of 1.34. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 1.95 is our value angle (55% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Marek to win ✓ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.43 |
| Double chance | Marek or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 55% | 1.82 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.24 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.95 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.42 | 1.27 |
| Half-time result | Marek ahead at half-time ✓ | 47% | 2.13 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Marek / FT Marek ✓ | 42% | 2.37 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.05 | – |
Form
Marek – last 6
| 6 Sep | @ Yantra 2019 | 0–3 | L |
| 2 Sep | vs Nesebar | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Sportist Svoge | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Aug | vs Dobrudzha | 4–2 | W |
| 16 Aug | @ Montana | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Aug | @ Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 0–1 | L |
Pirin Blagoevgrad – last 6
| 7 Sep | vs Ludogorets II | 0–3 | L |
| 2 Sep | @ Yantra 2019 | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 0–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | @ Nesebar | 0–7 | L |
| 18 Aug | vs Hebar 1918 | 2–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | @ Sportist Svoge | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marek and Pirin Blagoevgrad.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CSKA Sofia II | 15 | +18 | 31 |
| 2 |  Vihren | 15 | +15 | 29 |
| 3 |  Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 4 |  Fratria | 14 | +10 | 25 |
| 5 |  Yantra 2019 | 15 | +5 | 24 |
| 6 |  Hebar 1918 | 15 | +7 | 23 |
| 7 |  Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 15 | +1 | 23 |
| 8 |  Beroe | 15 | +3 | 22 |
| 9 |  Ludogorets II | 14 | +6 | 22 |
| 10 |  Spartak Pleven | 15 | -9 | 21 |
| 11 |  Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 14 | +1 | 21 |
| 12 |  Rilski Sportist | 15 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Marek | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 14 |  Nesebar | 15 | -1 | 18 |
| 15 |  Montana | 15 | -11 | 15 |
| 16 |  Sportist Svoge | 15 | -9 | 12 |
| 17 |  Dobrudzha | 14 | -13 | 10 |
| 18 |  Pirin Blagoevgrad | 15 | -33 | 2 |
More Second League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Marek vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Marek vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?
On our numbers Marek have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Pirin Blagoevgrad 14%.
How many goals will there be in Marek vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Marek vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?
Marek vs Pirin Blagoevgrad (Second League) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Bonchuk.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.