Primera División RFEF Group 1 · Spain

Pontevedra

DLWWL
1–0
FT

UD Ourense

WDLLW

Pontevedra vs UD Ourense prediction & analysis

77%
Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.25Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 52% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultPontevedra to win ✓62% · @1.48
Double chancePontevedra or draw ✓86% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓17% · fair 6.03

Win chances

Pontevedra62%fair 1.61 · @1.48
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.75
UD Ourense14%fair 7.26 · @6.00
2.31Expected goals
1.67Pontevedra xG
0.64UD Ourense xG
52%Both score
43%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%

From our goals model: Pontevedra 1.7 – 0.6 UD Ourense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Pontevedra are clear favourites at home with a 62% chance of winning, against 14% for UD Ourense.

Pontevedra have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.2 per game. UD Ourense have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 0.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.

We expect around 2.3 goals (1.7 for Pontevedra, 0.6 for UD Ourense). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (17%), 2–0 (14%), 1–1 (11%).

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.29. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.20 is our value angle (52% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPontevedra to win ✓62%1.611.48
Double chancePontevedra or draw ✓86%1.161.08
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗52%1.932.20 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗69%1.451.33
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓57%1.761.75
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77%1.291.25
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓44%2.27–
Half-time / full-timeHT Pontevedra / FT Pontevedra ✗39%2.59–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓17%6.03–

Form

Pontevedra – last 6

DLWWLL
1 Nov@ Barakaldo0–0D
27 Oct@ Arosa0–2L
24 Oct@ Cultural Leonesa2–1W
18 Octvs Cacereño1–0W
11 Octvs Mérida AD1–2L
3 Oct@ Racing Ferrol0–2L
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

UD Ourense – last 6

WDLLWD
1 Novvs Cultural Leonesa1–0W
29 Oct@ Gimnástica Torrelavega1–1D
24 Oct@ Arenas Getxo0–2L
18 Oct@ Real Avilés0–3L
10 Octvs Barakaldo1–0W
3 Oct@ Real Unión1–1D
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Pontevedra and UD Ourense.

More Primera División RFEF Group 1 predictions

FT Racing Ferrol1 UD Logroñés2 442234 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.22 ✓ FT Barakaldo2 Real Unión0 582022 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.28 ✓ FT Unionistas de Salamanca1 Zamora0 382538 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.22 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Pontevedra vs UD Ourense?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Pontevedra vs UD Ourense?

On our numbers Pontevedra have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and UD Ourense 14%.

How many goals will there be in Pontevedra vs UD Ourense?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

When is Pontevedra vs UD Ourense?

Pontevedra vs UD Ourense (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.