Primera División RFEF Group 1 · Spain · Campo de Lasesarre

Barakaldo

DDWLD
2–0
FT

Real Unión

LWDDD

Barakaldo vs Real Unión prediction & analysis

74%
Footrivo pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.35 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.28Odds
1

Value bet: Barakaldo to win @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Quick tips for this match

ResultBarakaldo to win ✓58% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.31

Win chances

Barakaldo58%fair 1.73 · @1.95
Draw20%fair 5.08 · @3.30
Real Unión22%fair 4.45 · @3.40
2.66Expected goals
1.72Barakaldo xG
0.94Real Unión xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%

From our goals model: Barakaldo 1.7 – 0.9 Real Unión expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Barakaldo hold the edge on home soil with a 58% chance of winning, against 22% for Real Unión.

Barakaldo have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (1W 4D 1L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.8 per game. Real Unión have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.

We expect around 2.7 goals (1.7 for Barakaldo, 0.9 for Real Unión). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 56%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (10%).

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is close to our fair price of 1.35. For a bigger price, Barakaldo to win at 1.95 is our value angle (58% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBarakaldo to win ✓58%1.731.95 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80%1.241.25
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗56%1.771.80
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74%1.351.28
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓51%1.971.85
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓72%1.381.30
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗42%2.41–
Half-time / full-timeHT Barakaldo / FT Barakaldo ✓34%2.91–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12%8.31–

Form

Barakaldo – last 6

DDWLDD
1 Novvs Pontevedra0–0D
24 Oct@ Ponferradina0–0D
17 Octvs Mirandes2–0W
10 Oct@ UD Ourense0–1L
3 Octvs Arenas Getxo1–1D
27 Sepvs Real Avilés3–3D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Real Unión – last 6

LWDDDL
31 Octvs Real Avilés0–3L
23 Octvs Lugo4–1W
17 Oct@ Extremadura 19242–2D
11 Oct@ Athletic Club II0–0D
3 Octvs UD Ourense1–1D
26 Sep@ Deportivo La Coruña II0–2L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Barakaldo and Real Unión.

More Primera División RFEF Group 1 predictions

FT Racing Ferrol1 UD Logroñés2 442234 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.22 ✓ FT Pontevedra1 UD Ourense0 622414 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.25 ✓ FT Unionistas de Salamanca1 Zamora0 382538 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.22 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Barakaldo vs Real Unión?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win Barakaldo vs Real Unión?

On our numbers Barakaldo have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Real Unión 22%.

How many goals will there be in Barakaldo vs Real Unión?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

When is Barakaldo vs Real Unión?

Barakaldo vs Real Unión (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Campo de Lasesarre.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.