La Liga · Spain · Anoeta

Real Sociedad

DLWWW
1–0
FT

Rayo Vallecano

WDLDD

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano prediction & analysis

88%
Footrivo pick

Real Sociedad or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.13 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓

10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1

Value bet: Real Sociedad to win @ 1.75 – our chance 65% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Quick tips for this match

ResultReal Sociedad to win ✓65% · @1.75
Double chanceReal Sociedad or draw ✓88% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗83% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 10.30

Win chances

Real Sociedad65%fair 1.55 · @1.75
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @4.00
Rayo Vallecano12%fair 8.59 · @4.20
3.34Expected goals
2.35Real Sociedad xG
1.00Rayo Vallecano xG
61%Both score
63%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

2–010%
2–110%
1–08%
1–18%
3–08%
3–18%

From our goals model: Real Sociedad 2.3 – 1.0 Rayo Vallecano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Real Sociedad are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 12% for Rayo Vallecano.

Real Sociedad have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 2.7 and conceding 1.2 per game. Rayo Vallecano have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.

We expect around 3.3 goals (2.3 for Real Sociedad, 1.0 for Rayo Vallecano). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (8%).

In their last 1 meeting, Real Sociedad have won 0, Rayo Vallecano have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 6.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Real Sociedad or draw at a 88% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.13, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Real Sociedad to win at 1.75 is our value angle (65% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultReal Sociedad to win ✓65%1.551.75 ▲
Double chanceReal Sociedad or draw ✓88%1.131.22 ▲
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗61%1.641.53
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗83%1.211.17
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗63%1.601.57
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓59%1.701.57
Half-time resultReal Sociedad ahead at half-time ✗50%2.01–
Half-time / full-timeHT Real Sociedad / FT Real Sociedad ✗45%2.24–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10%10.30–

Form

Real Sociedad – last 6

DLWWWD
5 Novvs Lyon1–1D
1 Nov@ Athletic Club1–2L
25 Octvs Levante2–1W
22 Oct@ Lillestrom6–0W
18 Oct@ Malaga5–2W
15 Oct@ Union St. Gilloise1–1D
2.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Rayo Vallecano – last 6

WDLDDW
31 Octvs Celta Vigo3–0W
27 Oct@ Recreativo Huelva1–1D
24 Octvs Elche0–3L
19 Oct@ Getafe1–1D
19 Sep@ Osasuna1–1D
15 Sepvs Espanyol2–1W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

26 Apr 2026Rayo Vallecano v Real Sociedad3–3

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Barcelona121101+3533
2Real Madrid121002+2130
3Atletico Madrid12912+1328
4Real Betis12822+526
5Real Sociedad12714+122
6Sevilla12534-218
7Athletic Club11443+416
8Villarreal12435+215
9Deportivo La Coruna12363+115
10Racing Santander12426-1314
11Celta Vigo12273013
12Alaves12345-213
13Espanyol12336-112
14Rayo Vallecano11335-612
15Getafe12336-1012
16Osasuna12336-1112
17Levante12255-511
18Elche12246-610
19Valencia12237-129
20Malaga12057-145

More La Liga predictions

League hub →
FT Elche0 Real Betis2 212059 2Real Betis to win 59%@1.91 ✓ FT Celta Vigo0 Levante0 582418 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.28 ✗ FT Villarreal2 Getafe0 682210 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 71%@1.40 ✓ FT Atletico Madrid1 Barcelona2 361846 GGBoth teams to score 73%@1.33 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?

Our pick is Real Sociedad or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?

On our numbers Real Sociedad have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Rayo Vallecano 12%.

How many goals will there be in Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?

We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.

When is Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:15 (West Africa Time) at Anoeta.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.