La Liga · Spain · Metropolitano Stadium

Atletico Madrid

LWWDW

1–2

Barcelona

WWLLW

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona prediction & analysis

73%

Footrivo pick

Both teams to score

Strong pick · fair odds 1.38 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓

8/10Rating

1.33Odds

Value bet: Atletico Madrid to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultBarcelona to win ✓46% · @2.00

Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓73% · @1.33

GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓72% · @1.36

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓8% · fair 12.26

Win chances

Atletico Madrid36%fair 2.80 · @3.10

Draw18%fair 5.61 · @4.20

Barcelona46%fair 2.15 · @2.00

3.81Expected goals

1.77Atletico Madrid xG

2.04Barcelona xG

73%Both score

72%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–28%

1–18%

2–27%

2–17%

1–36%

2–35%

From our goals model: Atletico Madrid 1.8 – 2.0 Barcelona expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Barcelona shade it despite being away from home – 46% to win, against 36% for Atletico Madrid.

Atletico Madrid have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.5 per game. Barcelona have 12 points from their last 6 (4W 0D 2L), averaging 3.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.

We expect around 3.8 goals (1.8 for Atletico Madrid, 2.0 for Barcelona). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 73% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–2 (8%), 1–1 (8%), 2–2 (7%).

In their last 3 meetings, Atletico Madrid have won 1, Barcelona have won 2 and 0 ended level, with an average of 2.7 goals per game.

Our pick is Both teams to score at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.33 is close to our fair price of 1.38. For a bigger price, Atletico Madrid to win at 3.10 is our value angle (36% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Barcelona to win ✓	46%	2.15	2.00
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	82%	1.22	1.22
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	73%	1.38	1.33
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	88%	1.14	1.10
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	72%	1.39	1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals	Over 3.5 goals ✗	51%	1.94	1.91
Half-time result	Barcelona ahead at half-time ✗	36%	2.76	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Barcelona / FT Barcelona ✗	28%	3.61	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✓	8%	12.26	–

Form

Atletico Madrid – last 6

LWWDWW

3 Nov	vs Bayern München	0–2	L
31 Oct	@ Levante	2–0	W
24 Oct	vs Deportivo La Coruna	1–0	W
20 Oct	@ VfB Stuttgart	1–1	D
17 Oct	@ Espanyol	1–0	W
13 Oct	vs Manchester United	2–0	W

1.2Scored / game

0.5Conceded / game

17%Both scored

0%Over 2.5

Barcelona – last 6

WWLLWW

3 Nov	vs Aston Villa	3–0	W
31 Oct	vs Alaves	6–1	W
25 Oct	vs Real Madrid	1–2	L
20 Oct	@ Paris Saint Germain	2–4	L
17 Oct	@ Real Betis	5–2	W
13 Oct	@ Galatasaray	4–1	W

3.5Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

83%Both scored

100%Over 2.5

Head to head

14 Apr 2026	Atletico Madrid v Barcelona	1–2
8 Apr 2026	Barcelona v Atletico Madrid	0–2
3 Mar 2026	Barcelona v Atletico Madrid	3–0

La Liga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	12	11	0	1	+35	33
2	Real Madrid	12	10	0	2	+21	30
3	Atletico Madrid	12	9	1	2	+13	28
4	Real Betis	12	8	2	2	+5	26
5	Real Sociedad	12	7	1	4	+1	22
6	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	-2	18
7	Athletic Club	11	4	4	3	+4	16
8	Villarreal	12	4	3	5	+2	15
9	Deportivo La Coruna	12	3	6	3	+1	15
10	Racing Santander	12	4	2	6	-13	14
11	Celta Vigo	12	2	7	3	0	13
12	Alaves	12	3	4	5	-2	13
13	Espanyol	12	3	3	6	-1	12
14	Rayo Vallecano	11	3	3	5	-6	12
15	Getafe	12	3	3	6	-10	12
16	Osasuna	12	3	3	6	-11	12
17	Levante	12	2	5	5	-5	11
18	Elche	12	2	4	6	-6	10
19	Valencia	12	2	3	7	-12	9
20	Malaga	12	0	5	7	-14	5

More La Liga predictions

League hub →

Elche0

Real Betis2 212059 2Real Betis to win 59%@1.91 ✓ FT

Real Sociedad1

Rayo Vallecano0 652412 1XReal Sociedad or draw 88%@1.22 ✓ FT

Celta Vigo0

Levante0 582418 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.28 ✗ FT

Villarreal2

Getafe0 682210 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 71%@1.40 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.

Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?

On our numbers Atletico Madrid have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Barcelona 46%.

How many goals will there be in Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?

We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 73% of the time on our projection.

When is Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Metropolitano Stadium.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.