La Liga · Spain · Estadio MendizorrotzaAlaves vs Malaga prediction & analysis
Alaves to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.70 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Alaves 1.8 – 0.9 Malaga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Alaves hold the edge on home soil with a 59% chance of winning, against 18% for Malaga.
Alaves have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.5 per game. Malaga have 3 points from their last 6 (0W 3D 3L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.8 for Alaves, 0.9 for Malaga). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 49%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13%), 2–0 (11%), 1–1 (11%).
Our pick is Alaves to win at a 59% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.70 is close to our fair price of 1.71.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Alaves to win ✗ | 59% | 1.71 | 1.70 |
| Double chance | Alaves or draw ✓ | 82% | 1.22 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.97 | 1.83 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.36 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.94 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.36 | – |
| Half-time result | Alaves ahead at half-time ✗ | 42% | 2.40 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Alaves / FT Alaves ✗ | 36% | 2.75 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.76 | – |
Form
Alaves – last 6
| 18 Oct | @ Celta Vigo | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Atletico Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | @ Athletic Club | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Valencia | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | @ Racing Santander | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Osasuna | 5–2 | W |
Malaga – last 6
| 18 Oct | vs Real Sociedad | 2–5 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Espanyol | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | @ Getafe | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Sep | vs Villarreal | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | @ Celta Vigo | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Levante | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alaves and Malaga.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 12 | +35 | 33 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 12 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 12 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 12 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 12 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Racing Santander | 12 | -13 | 14 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 |  Alaves | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 11 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 12 | -10 | 12 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 |  Levante | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 |  Elche | 12 | -6 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | -12 | 9 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 12 | -14 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Alaves vs Malaga?
Our pick is Alaves to win with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Alaves vs Malaga?
On our numbers Alaves have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Malaga 18%.
How many goals will there be in Alaves vs Malaga?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Alaves vs Malaga?
Alaves vs Malaga (La Liga) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.