La Liga · Spain · Estadio Manuel Martínez ValeroElche vs Celta Vigo prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Celta Vigo to win @ 2.50 – our chance 46% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Elche 1.3 – 1.7 Celta Vigo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Celta Vigo shade it despite being away from home – 46% to win, against 32% for Elche.
Elche have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.7 per game. Celta Vigo have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
We expect around 3.0 goals (1.3 for Elche, 1.7 for Celta Vigo). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Elche have won 0, Celta Vigo have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 61% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.75 is better than our fair price of 1.65, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Celta Vigo to win at 2.50 is our value angle (46% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Celta Vigo to win ✗ | 46% | 2.19 | 2.50 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 77% | 1.29 | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 61% | 1.65 | 1.75 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 80% | 1.25 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 58% | 1.73 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 40% | 2.53 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Celta Vigo / FT Celta Vigo ✗ | 27% | 3.69 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 10.89 | – |
Form
Elche – last 6
| 18 Sep | @ Espanyol | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Sep | vs Real Madrid | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | @ Athletic Club | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Sep | vs Real Sociedad | 2–3 | L |
| 28 Aug | @ Racing Santander | 2–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | vs Barcelona | 0–5 | L |
Celta Vigo – last 6
| 19 Sep | vs Racing Santander | 5–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | @ Omonia Nicosia | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Malaga | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Sep | @ Getafe | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Sep | @ Real Sociedad | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs Athletic Club | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 3 May 2026 | Celta Vigo v Elche | 3–1 |
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 12 | +35 | 33 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 12 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 12 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 12 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 12 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Racing Santander | 12 | -13 | 14 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 |  Alaves | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 11 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 12 | -10 | 12 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 |  Levante | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 |  Elche | 12 | -6 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | -12 | 9 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 12 | -14 | 5 |
More La Liga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Elche vs Celta Vigo?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Elche vs Celta Vigo?
On our numbers Elche have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Celta Vigo 46%.
How many goals will there be in Elche vs Celta Vigo?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
When is Elche vs Celta Vigo?
Elche vs Celta Vigo (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.