La Liga · SpainSevilla vs Atletico Madrid prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Value bet: Sevilla to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Sevilla 1.3 – 1.6 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Atletico Madrid shade it despite being away from home – 45% to win, against 33% for Sevilla.
Sevilla have taken 15 points from their last 6 matches (5W 0D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.0 per game. Atletico Madrid have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.5 conceded. Sevilla come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.9 goals (1.3 for Sevilla, 1.6 for Atletico Madrid). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 76% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.32. For a bigger price, Sevilla to win at 3.40 is our value angle (33% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Atletico Madrid to win ✓ | 45% | 2.23 | 2.08 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 59% | 1.70 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 53% | 1.90 | 1.93 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 69% | 1.45 | 1.30 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 40% | 2.50 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Atletico Madrid / FT Atletico Madrid ✓ | 26% | 3.84 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 11.02 | – |
Form
Sevilla – last 6
| 22 Aug | @ Athletic Club | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | vs Rayo Vallecano | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | @ Bayer Leverkusen | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | @ Utrecht | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Jul | @ NEC Nijmegen | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Jul | vs AD Ceuta FC | 2–1 | W |
Atletico Madrid – last 6
| 23 Aug | vs Villarreal | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Aug | vs Malaga | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | @ Marseille | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | @ Manchester City | 1–3 | L |
| 1 Aug | @ Manchester United | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Jul | vs Getafe | 4–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sevilla and Atletico Madrid.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 12 | +35 | 33 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 12 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 12 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 12 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 12 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Racing Santander | 12 | -13 | 14 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 |  Alaves | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 11 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 12 | -10 | 12 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 |  Levante | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 |  Elche | 12 | -6 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | -12 | 9 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 12 | -14 | 5 |
More La Liga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
On our numbers Sevilla have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atletico Madrid 45%.
How many goals will there be in Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
When is Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid (La Liga) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.