La Liga · Spain · Estadio Municipal de ButarqueRayo Vallecano vs Alaves prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 55% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Rayo Vallecano 1.4 – 1.1 Alaves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Rayo Vallecano hold the edge on home soil with a 45% chance of winning, against 31% for Alaves.
Rayo Vallecano have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (1W 0D 5L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 per game. Alaves have 14 points from their last 6 (4W 2D 0L), averaging 1.7 scored and 0.3 conceded. Alaves come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.4 for Rayo Vallecano, 1.1 for Alaves). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 67% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.53 is better than our fair price of 1.49, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.15 is our value angle (55% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Rayo Vallecano to win ✗ | 45% | 2.22 | 2.24 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.83 | 2.15 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.49 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 58% | 1.72 | 1.48 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.15 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 43% | 2.31 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Rayo Vallecano / FT Rayo Vallecano ✗ | 26% | 3.89 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 9.15 | – |
Form
Rayo Vallecano – last 6
| 15 Aug | @ Sevilla | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Aug | @ Ipswich | 0–3 | L |
| 1 Aug | @ Charleroi | 3–2 | W |
| 26 Jul | @ Feyenoord | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Jul | @ Heart Of Midlothian | 1–2 | L |
| 27 May | @ Crystal Palace | 0–1 | L |
Alaves – last 6
| 15 Aug | vs Getafe | 3–0 | W |
| 7 Aug | @ Racing Santander | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Jul | vs Castellón | 3–0 | W |
| 25 Jul | @ Girona | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Jul | vs Eibar | 1–1 | D |
| 17 May | @ Oviedo | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rayo Vallecano and Alaves.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 12 | +35 | 33 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 12 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 12 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 12 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 12 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Racing Santander | 12 | -13 | 14 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 |  Alaves | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 11 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 12 | -10 | 12 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 |  Levante | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 |  Elche | 12 | -6 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | -12 | 9 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 12 | -14 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
On our numbers Rayo Vallecano have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alaves 31%.
How many goals will there be in Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves (La Liga) kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.