Segunda División · Spain · Municipal de ButarqueLeganes vs Castellón prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.76 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Castellón to win @ 2.20 – our chance 48% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Leganes 0.9 – 1.2 Castellón expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Castellón shade it despite being away from home – 48% to win, against 29% for Leganes.
Leganes have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.8 per game. Castellón have 16 points from their last 6 (5W 1D 0L), averaging 2.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. Castellón come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.1 goals (0.9 for Leganes, 1.2 for Castellón). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (15%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (12%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 57% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.67 is close to our fair price of 1.76. For a bigger price, Castellón to win at 2.20 is our value angle (48% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Castellón to win ✓ | 48% | 2.07 | 2.20 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 57% | 1.76 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 62% | 1.63 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.53 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.06 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Castellón / FT Castellón ✓ | 26% | 3.88 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 15% | 6.53 | – |
Form
Leganes – last 6
| 20 Sep | vs Granada CF | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ Tenerife | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Sep | @ Las Palmas | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | vs Eldense | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | @ Oviedo | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | @ Girona | 1–1 | D |
Castellón – last 6
| 19 Sep | vs Tenerife | 5–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Girona | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Albacete | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | @ Celta de Vigo II | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | vs Sabadell | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Aug | @ Real Sociedad II | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leganes and Castellón.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Almeria | 13 | +14 | 29 |
| 2 |  Castellón | 12 | +18 | 27 |
| 3 |  Burgos | 13 | +5 | 24 |
| 4 |  Eibar | 12 | +7 | 23 |
| 5 |  Granada CF | 12 | +6 | 23 |
| 6 |  Mallorca | 12 | +8 | 22 |
| 7 |  Sporting Gijon | 13 | -1 | 22 |
| 8 |  Girona | 13 | +10 | 21 |
| 9 |  Oviedo | 13 | +3 | 21 |
| 10 |  Las Palmas | 13 | -2 | 20 |
| 11 |  Cordoba | 13 | 0 | 19 |
| 12 |  Valladolid | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Sabadell | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Tenerife | 12 | -2 | 15 |
| 15 |  Eldense | 13 | -6 | 14 |
| 16 |  Celta de Vigo II | 13 | -6 | 13 |
| 17 |  Real Sociedad II | 13 | -7 | 12 |
| 18 |  Leganes | 13 | -12 | 12 |
| 19 |  FC Andorra | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 20 |  Cadiz | 13 | -2 | 10 |
| 21 |  Albacete | 13 | -11 | 10 |
| 22 |  AD Ceuta FC | 13 | -20 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Leganes vs Castellón?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Leganes vs Castellón?
On our numbers Leganes have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Castellón 48%.
How many goals will there be in Leganes vs Castellón?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Leganes vs Castellón?
Leganes vs Castellón (Segunda División) kicks off on Monday 28 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Municipal de Butarque.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.