III Liga Group 1 · PolandWidzew II vs Wisła Płock II prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.40 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Widzew II to win @ 1.83 – our chance 59% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Widzew II 2.2 – 1.4 Wisła Płock II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Widzew II hold the edge on home soil with a 59% chance of winning, against 25% for Wisła Płock II.
Widzew II have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.0 per game. Wisła Płock II have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 2.0 scored and 2.0 conceded. Widzew II come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.6 goals (2.2 for Widzew II, 1.4 for Wisła Płock II). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 1–1 (8%), 3–1 (7%).
In their last 1 meeting, Widzew II have won 1, Wisła Płock II have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 68% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.40 is close to our fair price of 1.47. For a bigger price, Widzew II to win at 1.83 is our value angle (59% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Widzew II to win ✗ | 59% | 1.68 | 1.83 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 55% | 1.82 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 88% | 1.14 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 68% | 1.47 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.96 | – |
| Half-time result | Widzew II ahead at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.29 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Widzew II / FT Widzew II ✗ | 37% | 2.73 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 10.78 | – |
Form
Widzew II – last 6
| 30 Aug | @ Olimpia Zambrów | 4–3 | W |
| 23 Aug | vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Aug | @ Olimpia Elbląg | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | vs Swit | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Aug | @ Ząbkovia Ząbki | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Aug | vs Troszyn | 5–1 | W |
Wisła Płock II – last 6
| 1 Sep | vs Puszcza Niepołomice | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Mławianka Mława | 5–3 | W |
| 23 Aug | @ Olimpia Zambrów | 3–4 | L |
| 19 Aug | vs Łomża | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Aug | @ Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Aug | vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 30 Apr 2026 | Wisła Płock II v Widzew II | 0–1 |
III Liga Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Weszlo | 16 | +14 | 35 |
| 2 |  Wigry Suwałki | 16 | +16 | 34 |
| 3 |  Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 16 | +10 | 30 |
| 4 |  Swit | 16 | +9 | 29 |
| 5 |  Warta Sieradz | 16 | +6 | 28 |
| 6 |  Ząbkovia Ząbki | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 7 |  Wisła Płock II | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 8 |  Pelikan Łowicz | 16 | +2 | 24 |
| 9 |  Olimpia Zambrów | 16 | +1 | 24 |
| 10 |  ŁKS Łódź II | 16 | -2 | 21 |
| 11 |  Olimpia Elbląg | 16 | -3 | 21 |
| 12 |  Jagiellonia II | 16 | -1 | 20 |
| 13 |  Widzew II | 16 | +2 | 19 |
| 14 |  Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 16 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 16 | -8 | 17 |
| 16 |  Mławianka Mława | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 17 |  Troszyn | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 18 |  Łomża | 16 | -20 | 4 |
More III Liga Group 1 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Widzew II vs Wisła Płock II?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Widzew II vs Wisła Płock II?
On our numbers Widzew II have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Wisła Płock II 25%.
How many goals will there be in Widzew II vs Wisła Płock II?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Widzew II vs Wisła Płock II?
Widzew II vs Wisła Płock II (III Liga Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.