III Liga Group 2 · PolandPolonia Środa vs Unia Swarzędz prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.38 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Polonia Środa 2.7 – 1.1 Unia Swarzędz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Polonia Środa are clear favourites at home with a 70% chance of winning, against 11% for Unia Swarzędz.
Polonia Środa have taken 16 points from their last 6 matches (5W 1D 0L), scoring 3.7 and conceding 2.2 per game. Unia Swarzędz have 4 points from their last 6 (1W 1D 4L), averaging 0.7 scored and 1.7 conceded. Polonia Środa come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.8 goals (2.7 for Polonia Środa, 1.1 for Unia Swarzędz). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 3–1 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Polonia Środa have won 0, Unia Swarzędz have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 72% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.38.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Polonia Środa to win ✓ | 70% | 1.43 | 1.25 |
| Double chance | Polonia Środa or draw ✓ | 89% | 1.13 | 1.10 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.91 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 89% | 1.12 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.38 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.92 | – |
| Half-time result | Polonia Środa ahead at half-time ✗ | 54% | 1.86 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Polonia Środa / FT Polonia Środa ✗ | 49% | 2.06 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.10 | – |
Form
Polonia Środa – last 6
| 5 Sep | @ Grom Nowy Staw | 4–4 | D |
| 1 Sep | vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 3–2 | W |
| 28 Aug | vs Gedania Gdansk | 4–3 | W |
| 22 Aug | @ Lipno Stęszew | 3–2 | W |
| 19 Aug | vs Stargard Szczeciński | 4–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | @ Chemik Bydgoszcz | 4–1 | W |
Unia Swarzędz – last 6
| 4 Sep | vs Lech Poznań II | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | @ Kluczevia Stargard | 0–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | vs Wda Świecie | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Aug | @ Elana Toruń | 3–2 | W |
| 14 Aug | vs Noteć Czarnków | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | @ Kalisz | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 10 Apr 2026 | Polonia Środa v Unia Swarzędz | 0–1 |
III Liga Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Polonia Środa | 16 | +22 | 37 |
| 2 |  Kluczevia Stargard | 16 | +4 | 30 |
| 3 |  Luzino | 16 | +15 | 29 |
| 4 |  Wda Świecie | 16 | +4 | 29 |
| 5 |  Lech Poznań II | 16 | +11 | 27 |
| 6 |  Stargard Szczeciński | 16 | +9 | 24 |
| 7 |  Unia Swarzędz | 16 | +4 | 22 |
| 8 |  Bałtyk Koszalin | 16 | +2 | 21 |
| 9 |  Noteć Czarnków | 16 | -2 | 21 |
| 10 |  Kalisz | 16 | -2 | 20 |
| 11 |  Elana Toruń | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 12 |  Gedania Gdansk | 16 | 0 | 19 |
| 13 |  Grom Nowy Staw | 16 | -1 | 19 |
| 14 |  Chemik Bydgoszcz | 16 | -5 | 18 |
| 15 |  Flota Świnoujście | 16 | -13 | 18 |
| 16 |  Lipno Stęszew | 16 | -11 | 14 |
| 17 |  Victoria Września | 16 | -12 | 14 |
| 18 |  Kotwica Kórnik | 16 | -22 | 11 |
More III Liga Group 2 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Polonia Środa vs Unia Swarzędz?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Polonia Środa vs Unia Swarzędz?
On our numbers Polonia Środa have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Unia Swarzędz 11%.
How many goals will there be in Polonia Środa vs Unia Swarzędz?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Polonia Środa vs Unia Swarzędz?
Polonia Środa vs Unia Swarzędz (III Liga Group 2) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.