III Liga Group 4 · PolandStar Starachowice vs Korona Kielce II prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Star Starachowice 1.8 – 1.6 Korona Kielce II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Star Starachowice and Korona Kielce II on our numbers – 43% for the home side, 36% for the visitors and 21% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Star Starachowice have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.3 per game. Korona Kielce II have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded. Korona Kielce II come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.4 goals (1.8 for Star Starachowice, 1.6 for Korona Kielce II). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Star Starachowice have won 0, Korona Kielce II have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 5.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 63% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.57 is close to our fair price of 1.60.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Star Starachowice to win ✓ | 43% | 2.35 | 2.10 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 56% | 1.78 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.60 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 57% | 1.77 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 37% | 2.70 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Star Starachowice / FT Star Starachowice ✓ | 25% | 3.96 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.65 | – |
Form
Star Starachowice – last 6
| 10 Oct | @ Chełmianka Chełm | 1–2 | L |
| 1 Oct | @ Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 2–2 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Wisłoka Dębica | 2–3 | L |
| 4 Sep | @ Sokół Kolb. | 0–0 | D |
Korona Kielce II – last 6
| 10 Oct | vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 4–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | @ Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Wisłoka Dębica | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Sokół Kolb. | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sep | @ Jarosław | 2–6 | L |
Head to head
| 2 Apr 2026 | Korona Kielce II v Star Starachowice | 3–2 |
III Liga Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chełmianka Chełm | 16 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 |  KSZO 1929 | 16 | +13 | 29 |
| 3 |  Hetman Zamosc | 16 | +8 | 29 |
| 4 |  Wisłoka Dębica | 16 | +4 | 29 |
| 5 |  Naprzód | 16 | +5 | 28 |
| 6 |  Czarni Połaniec | 16 | +3 | 28 |
| 7 |  Wisła Kraków II | 16 | +1 | 25 |
| 8 |  Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Star Starachowice | 16 | +3 | 23 |
| 10 |  Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 16 | 0 | 21 |
| 11 |  KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 12 |  Jarosław | 16 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Busko-Zdroj | 16 | -14 | 17 |
| 14 |  Sokół Kolb. | 16 | -4 | 16 |
| 15 |  Korona Kielce II | 16 | -6 | 15 |
| 16 |  Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 16 | -15 | 13 |
| 17 |  Moravia Morawica | 16 | -10 | 12 |
| 18 |  Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 16 | -13 | 12 |
More III Liga Group 4 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Star Starachowice vs Korona Kielce II?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Star Starachowice vs Korona Kielce II?
On our numbers Star Starachowice have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Korona Kielce II 36%.
How many goals will there be in Star Starachowice vs Korona Kielce II?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Star Starachowice vs Korona Kielce II?
Star Starachowice vs Korona Kielce II (III Liga Group 4) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.