Serie D · Brazil
CSA vs Ipatinga prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: CSA 1.8 – 0.7 Ipatinga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
CSA are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 17% for Ipatinga.
CSA have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 2.7 and conceding 0.8 per game. Ipatinga have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 2.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.8 for CSA, 0.7 for Ipatinga). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 48%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, CSA have won 0, Ipatinga have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 76% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.32.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | CSA to win ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | 1.44 |
| Double chance | CSA or draw ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | – |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.94 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.41 | 1.33 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 55% | 1.83 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | CSA ahead at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.30 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT CSA / FT CSA ✓ | 39% | 2.57 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 15% | 6.73 | – |
Form
CSA – last 6
| 4 Jul | @ Ipatinga | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Jun | vs Lagarto | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Jun | @ Lagarto | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Jun | @ Atlético Alagoinhas | 7–1 | W |
| 31 May | vs Jacuipense | 1–1 | D |
| 17 May | @ CSE | 5–1 | W |
Ipatinga – last 6
| 11 Jul | vs Coimbra | 3–2 | W |
| 4 Jul | vs CSA | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Jul | @ Democrata SL | 0–5 | L |
| 1 Jul | vs Aymorés | 1–4 | L |
| 27 Jun | @ Villa Nova | 0–6 | L |
| 27 Jun | vs Vitória ES | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 4 Jul 2026 | Ipatinga v CSA | 1–0 |
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Trem1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for CSA vs Ipatinga?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win CSA vs Ipatinga?
On our numbers CSA have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Ipatinga 17%.
How many goals will there be in CSA vs Ipatinga?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
When is CSA vs Ipatinga?
CSA vs Ipatinga (Serie D) kicks off on Tuesday 14 July 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.