Premier League · Ukraine · Ukraina StadiumKarpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction & analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Karpaty 0.9 – 2.0 Shakhtar Donetsk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk travel as clear favourites – 63% to win, against 15% for Karpaty.
Karpaty have taken 16 points from their last 6 matches (5W 1D 0L), scoring 3.0 and conceding 0.5 per game. Shakhtar Donetsk have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.9 goals (0.9 for Karpaty, 2.0 for Shakhtar Donetsk). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 0–2 (11%), 0–1 (11%), 1–2 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Karpaty have won 0, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Shakhtar Donetsk to win at a 63% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is close to our fair price of 1.60.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Shakhtar Donetsk to win ✓ | 63% | 1.60 | 1.50 |
| Double chance | Shakhtar Donetsk or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 58% | 1.72 | 1.78 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.18 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.79 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.53 | 1.39 |
| Half-time result | Shakhtar Donetsk ahead at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.18 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Shakhtar Donetsk / FT Shakhtar Donetsk ✗ | 41% | 2.46 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–2 ✗ | 11% | 9.22 | – |
Form
Karpaty – last 6
| 29 Aug | @ Livyi Bereh | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | vs Obolon'-Brovar | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | vs Bukovyna | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Aug | vs LNZ Cherkasy | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Aug | @ Kryvbas KR | 4–1 | W |
| 25 Jul | vs Veres Rivne | 5–1 | W |
Shakhtar Donetsk – last 6
| 29 Aug | vs Polessya | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | @ FC Kharkiv | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | @ Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 2–0 | W |
| 3 Aug | vs Kudrivka | 5–1 | W |
| 26 Jul | @ Bursaspor | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Jul | @ HNK Gorica | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 22 Feb 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk v Karpaty | 3–0 |
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 12 | +17 | 29 |
| 2 |  Polessya | 11 | +17 | 28 |
| 3 |  Dynamo Kyiv | 11 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 |  FC Kharkiv | 9 | +11 | 21 |
| 5 |  Karpaty | 11 | +14 | 19 |
| 6 |  LNZ Cherkasy | 11 | +2 | 18 |
| 7 |  Zorya Luhansk | 12 | -1 | 18 |
| 8 |  Kolos Kovalivka | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 |  Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 12 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 |  Bukovyna | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 11 |  Chornomorets | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 12 |  Livyi Bereh | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Veres Rivne | 12 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 |  Obolon'-Brovar | 11 | -13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Kudrivka | 12 | -17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Kryvbas KR | 10 | -8 | 7 |
More Premier League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our pick is Shakhtar Donetsk to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
On our numbers Karpaty have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Shakhtar Donetsk 63%.
How many goals will there be in Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Ukraina Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.