Liga I · RomaniaArges Pitesti vs Farul Constanta prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Farul Constanta to win @ 3.15 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Arges Pitesti 1.2 – 1.2 Farul Constanta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Arges Pitesti and Farul Constanta on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 36% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Arges Pitesti have taken 15 points from their last 6 matches (5W 0D 1L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.7 per game. Farul Constanta have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded. Arges Pitesti come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.2 for Arges Pitesti, 1.2 for Farul Constanta). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Arges Pitesti have won 1, Farul Constanta have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.30. For a bigger price, Farul Constanta to win at 3.15 is our value angle (36% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Arges Pitesti to win ✗ | 40% | 2.51 | 2.16 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 54% | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.46 | 1.38 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.76 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.22 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 45% | 2.21 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Arges Pitesti / FT Arges Pitesti ✗ | 22% | 4.59 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 8.88 | – |
Form
Arges Pitesti – last 6
| 9 Aug | @ Universitatea Craiova | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Jul | vs Csikszereda | 1–0 | W |
| 24 Jul | vs Petrolul Ploiesti | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Jul | @ FCSB | 0–2 | L |
| 2 Jul | @ Dekani | 4–0 | W |
| 29 Jun | vs Vllaznia Shkodër | 5–2 | W |
Farul Constanta – last 6
| 8 Aug | vs Csikszereda | 3–2 | W |
| 3 Aug | @ FCSB | 2–2 | D |
| 25 Jul | vs Corvinul Hunedoara | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Jul | @ Universitatea Cluj | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Jul | @ Dinamo Bucuresti | 3–1 | W |
| 8 Jul | vs Cherno More Varna | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 22 Feb 2026 | Arges Pitesti v Farul Constanta | 1–0 |
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Universitatea Craiova | 15 | +24 | 33 |
| 2 |  Dinamo Bucuresti | 15 | +21 | 33 |
| 3 |  Rapid | 15 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Petrolul Ploiesti | 15 | +2 | 27 |
| 5 |  Universitatea Cluj | 15 | +6 | 26 |
| 6 |  Farul Constanta | 15 | +2 | 24 |
| 7 |  Corvinul Hunedoara | 15 | +1 | 22 |
| 8 |  FCSB | 15 | -1 | 21 |
| 9 |  CFR 1907 Cluj | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 |  Uta Arad | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 11 |  Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 12 |  FC Botosani | 15 | -1 | 15 |
| 13 |  Arges Pitesti | 15 | -7 | 15 |
| 14 |  Oţelul | 15 | -6 | 13 |
| 15 |  FC Voluntari | 15 | -18 | 8 |
| 16 |  Csikszereda | 15 | -19 | 6 |
More Liga I predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Arges Pitesti vs Farul Constanta?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Arges Pitesti vs Farul Constanta?
On our numbers Arges Pitesti have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Farul Constanta 36%.
How many goals will there be in Arges Pitesti vs Farul Constanta?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Arges Pitesti vs Farul Constanta?
Arges Pitesti vs Farul Constanta (Liga I) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.