Championship · Northern-IrelandStrabane Athletic vs Newry City AFC prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Newry City AFC to win @ 1.85 – our chance 64% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Strabane Athletic 1.1 – 2.1 Newry City AFC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Newry City AFC travel as clear favourites – 64% to win, against 23% for Strabane Athletic.
Strabane Athletic have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (1W 0D 5L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.7 per game. Newry City AFC have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded. Newry City AFC come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.1 goals (1.1 for Strabane Athletic, 2.1 for Newry City AFC). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–2 (10%), 1–1 (10%), 0–2 (9%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 79% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.27. For a bigger price, Newry City AFC to win at 1.85 is our value angle (64% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Newry City AFC to win ✗ | 64% | 1.57 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 87% | 1.15 | – |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 58% | 1.71 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.76 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.36 |
| Half-time result | Newry City AFC ahead at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.26 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Newry City AFC / FT Newry City AFC ✗ | 38% | 2.63 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 10% | 10.09 | – |
Form
Strabane Athletic – last 6
| 5 Sep | @ Queen's University | 0–6 | L |
| 28 Aug | vs Newington Youth | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | vs H&W Welders | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | @ Glenavon FC | 1–4 | L |
| 11 Aug | @ Moyola Park | 3–1 | W |
| 7 Aug | vs Institute | 0–1 | L |
Newry City AFC – last 6
| 4 Sep | vs Armagh City | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | @ Institute | 3–1 | W |
| 21 Aug | vs Warrenpoint Town | 0–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | @ Rathfriland | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Aug | vs Glenavon FC | 1–4 | L |
| 8 Aug | @ Ballinamallard United | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Strabane Athletic and Newry City AFC.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Annagh United | 15 | +21 | 34 |
| 2 |  Glenavon FC | 14 | +20 | 30 |
| 3 |  Newington Youth | 14 | +13 | 29 |
| 4 |  Queen's University | 15 | +9 | 23 |
| 5 |  Newry City AFC | 15 | -1 | 23 |
| 6 |  Institute | 14 | +3 | 21 |
| 7 |  Ballinamallard United | 15 | 0 | 21 |
| 8 |  Loughgall | 15 | -5 | 20 |
| 9 |  H&W Welders | 14 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 |  Warrenpoint Town | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 11 |  Ards | 15 | -4 | 17 |
| 12 |  Rathfriland | 14 | -10 | 16 |
| 13 |  Moyola Park | 14 | -11 | 15 |
| 14 |  Dundela | 13 | -8 | 11 |
| 15 |  Strabane Athletic | 15 | -12 | 11 |
| 16 |  Armagh City | 15 | -16 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Strabane Athletic vs Newry City AFC?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Strabane Athletic vs Newry City AFC?
On our numbers Strabane Athletic have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Newry City AFC 64%.
How many goals will there be in Strabane Athletic vs Newry City AFC?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Strabane Athletic vs Newry City AFC?
Strabane Athletic vs Newry City AFC (Championship) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.