Championship · Northern-Ireland · Lakeview ParkLoughgall vs Warrenpoint Town prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Loughgall to win @ 1.70 – our chance 65% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Loughgall 2.0 – 0.8 Warrenpoint Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Loughgall are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 14% for Warrenpoint Town.
Loughgall have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.5 per game. Warrenpoint Town have 6 points from their last 6 (2W 0D 4L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded. Loughgall come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.9 goals (2.0 for Loughgall, 0.8 for Warrenpoint Town). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 56%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–0 (12%), 1–0 (12%), 2–1 (10%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.29. For a bigger price, Loughgall to win at 1.70 is our value angle (65% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Loughgall to win ✗ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.70 ▲ |
| Double chance | Loughgall or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 56% | 1.77 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.29 | 1.22 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.85 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 67% | 1.49 | 1.40 |
| Half-time result | Loughgall ahead at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.12 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Loughgall / FT Loughgall ✗ | 42% | 2.36 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.41 | – |
Form
Loughgall – last 6
| 22 Aug | @ Ards | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | @ Institute | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Aug | vs Newington Youth | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Aug | @ Rathfriland | 3–1 | W |
| 21 Jul | vs Dungannon Swifts | 1–4 | L |
| 4 Jul | @ Ballymena United | 2–1 | W |
Warrenpoint Town – last 6
| 21 Aug | @ Newry City AFC | 3–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | vs Ards | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Aug | vs Armagh City | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | @ H&W Welders | 0–3 | L |
| 21 Jul | @ Cliftonville FC | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Jul | @ Crusaders FC | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Loughgall and Warrenpoint Town.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Annagh United | 15 | +21 | 34 |
| 2 |  Glenavon FC | 14 | +20 | 30 |
| 3 |  Newington Youth | 14 | +13 | 29 |
| 4 |  Queen's University | 15 | +9 | 23 |
| 5 |  Newry City AFC | 15 | -1 | 23 |
| 6 |  Institute | 14 | +3 | 21 |
| 7 |  Ballinamallard United | 15 | 0 | 21 |
| 8 |  Loughgall | 15 | -5 | 20 |
| 9 |  H&W Welders | 14 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 |  Warrenpoint Town | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 11 |  Ards | 15 | -4 | 17 |
| 12 |  Rathfriland | 14 | -10 | 16 |
| 13 |  Moyola Park | 14 | -11 | 15 |
| 14 |  Dundela | 13 | -8 | 11 |
| 15 |  Strabane Athletic | 15 | -12 | 11 |
| 16 |  Armagh City | 15 | -16 | 9 |
More Championship predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Loughgall vs Warrenpoint Town?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Loughgall vs Warrenpoint Town?
On our numbers Loughgall have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Warrenpoint Town 14%.
How many goals will there be in Loughgall vs Warrenpoint Town?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Loughgall vs Warrenpoint Town?
Loughgall vs Warrenpoint Town (Championship) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Lakeview Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.