League One · England · Kenilworth RoadLuton vs Leicester prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Strong pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
Value bet: Leicester to win @ 2.75 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Luton 1.7 – 1.7 Leicester expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Luton and Leicester on our numbers – 39% for the home side, 40% for the visitors and 21% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Luton have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.0 per game. Leicester have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 2.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 3.4 goals (1.7 for Luton, 1.7 for Leicester). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 1–2 (8%), 2–1 (8%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 68% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is close to our fair price of 1.47. For a bigger price, Leicester to win at 2.75 is our value angle (40% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Leicester to win ✗ | 40% | 2.53 | 2.75 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 68% | 1.47 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 85% | 1.17 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.51 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.79 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 37% | 2.72 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Leicester / FT Leicester ✗ | 23% | 4.29 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 8% | 12.15 | – |
Form
Luton – last 6
| 20 Oct | vs Barnsley | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | @ Milton Keynes Dons | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | @ Wycombe | 4–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | @ Colchester | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Sep | vs Ipswich Town U21 | 6–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Bradford | 0–1 | L |
Leicester – last 6
| 20 Oct | @ Bromley | 4–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Doncaster | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Peterborough | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Oct | @ Stevenage | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Sep | vs Fulham U21 | 6–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Barnsley | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Luton and Leicester.
League One table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Huddersfield | 14 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 |  Stockport County | 14 | +12 | 26 |
| 3 |  Oxford United | 13 | +11 | 26 |
| 4 |  Luton | 14 | +6 | 24 |
| 5 |  Plymouth | 14 | +2 | 23 |
| 6 |  Reading | 14 | +10 | 22 |
| 7 |  Bradford | 13 | +2 | 22 |
| 8 |  Cambridge United | 14 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 13 | +8 | 20 |
| 10 |  Leicester | 13 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Mansfield Town | 13 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Wycombe | 13 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 |  Leyton Orient | 13 | +5 | 17 |
| 15 |  Burton Albion | 14 | -3 | 17 |
| 16 |  Stevenage | 12 | +4 | 16 |
| 17 |  Notts County | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 |  AFC Wimbledon | 13 | -12 | 13 |
| 19 |  Blackpool | 12 | -4 | 12 |
| 20 |  Doncaster | 13 | -8 | 12 |
| 21 |  Wigan | 14 | -11 | 11 |
| 22 |  Peterborough | 13 | -12 | 10 |
| 23 |  Barnsley | 12 | -10 | 9 |
| 24 |  Bromley | 13 | -20 | 9 |
More League One predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Luton vs Leicester?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Luton vs Leicester?
On our numbers Luton have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Leicester 40%.
How many goals will there be in Luton vs Leicester?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
When is Luton vs Leicester?
Luton vs Leicester (League One) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Kenilworth Road.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.