League One · England · Home ParkPlymouth vs Barnsley prediction & analysis
Plymouth or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Plymouth to win @ 1.67 – our chance 64% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Plymouth 2.0 – 0.9 Barnsley expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Plymouth are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 13% for Barnsley.
Plymouth have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.0 per game. Barnsley have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.9 goals (2.0 for Plymouth, 0.9 for Barnsley). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (12%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Plymouth have won 1, Barnsley have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Plymouth or draw at a 87% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is better than our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Plymouth to win at 1.67 is our value angle (64% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Plymouth to win ✓ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.67 ▲ |
| Double chance | Plymouth or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 59% | 1.70 | 1.55 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.80 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.49 | – |
| Half-time result | Plymouth ahead at half-time ✓ | 47% | 2.13 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Plymouth / FT Plymouth ✓ | 42% | 2.38 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.67 | – |
Form
Plymouth – last 6
| 5 Sep | @ Doncaster | 3–2 | W |
| 1 Sep | @ Leicester | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Bradford | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Aug | vs Coventry | 2–4 | L |
| 22 Aug | @ Wycombe | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Aug | vs Stockport County | 1–3 | L |
Barnsley – last 6
| 5 Sep | vs Stevenage | 1–5 | L |
| 2 Sep | vs Blackpool | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Leyton Orient | 3–1 | W |
| 25 Aug | vs Crewe | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | @ Doncaster | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Aug | vs Bromley | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 6 Apr 2026 | Barnsley v Plymouth | 0–3 |
League One table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Huddersfield | 14 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 |  Stockport County | 14 | +12 | 26 |
| 3 |  Oxford United | 13 | +11 | 26 |
| 4 |  Luton | 14 | +6 | 24 |
| 5 |  Plymouth | 14 | +2 | 23 |
| 6 |  Reading | 14 | +10 | 22 |
| 7 |  Bradford | 13 | +2 | 22 |
| 8 |  Cambridge United | 14 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 13 | +8 | 20 |
| 10 |  Leicester | 13 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Mansfield Town | 13 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Wycombe | 13 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 |  Leyton Orient | 13 | +5 | 17 |
| 15 |  Burton Albion | 14 | -3 | 17 |
| 16 |  Stevenage | 12 | +4 | 16 |
| 17 |  Notts County | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 |  AFC Wimbledon | 13 | -12 | 13 |
| 19 |  Blackpool | 12 | -4 | 12 |
| 20 |  Doncaster | 13 | -8 | 12 |
| 21 |  Wigan | 14 | -11 | 11 |
| 22 |  Peterborough | 13 | -12 | 10 |
| 23 |  Barnsley | 12 | -10 | 9 |
| 24 |  Bromley | 13 | -20 | 9 |
More League One predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Plymouth vs Barnsley?
Our pick is Plymouth or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Plymouth vs Barnsley?
On our numbers Plymouth have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Barnsley 13%.
How many goals will there be in Plymouth vs Barnsley?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
When is Plymouth vs Barnsley?
Plymouth vs Barnsley (League One) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Home Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.