Championship · England · Toughsheet Community StadiumBolton vs Middlesbrough prediction & analysis
Middlesbrough to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Bolton 1.0 – 2.2 Middlesbrough expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Middlesbrough travel as clear favourites – 63% to win, against 14% for Bolton.
Bolton have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.5 per game. Middlesbrough have 12 points from their last 6 (3W 3D 0L), averaging 2.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
We expect around 3.2 goals (1.0 for Bolton, 2.2 for Middlesbrough). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (10%), 1–1 (9%).
Our pick is Middlesbrough to win at a 63% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.57 is close to our fair price of 1.58.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Middlesbrough to win ✓ | 63% | 1.58 | 1.57 |
| Double chance | Middlesbrough or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 59% | 1.68 | 1.55 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.60 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 60% | 1.68 | – |
| Half-time result | Middlesbrough ahead at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.09 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Middlesbrough / FT Middlesbrough ✓ | 42% | 2.36 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 10% | 10.16 | – |
Form
Bolton – last 6
| 17 Oct | @ Southampton | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Oct | @ Wolves | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Stoke City | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | @ Norwich | 4–3 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Cardiff | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Sep | vs West Ham | 2–3 | L |
Middlesbrough – last 6
| 17 Oct | vs Cardiff | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Oct | @ Stoke City | 3–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Wolves | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Birmingham | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Millwall | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Norwich | 4–3 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bolton and Middlesbrough.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Birmingham | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 15 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 |  Stoke City | 15 | +6 | 29 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 6 |  Swansea | 15 | +4 | 26 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 8 |  QPR | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  West Ham | 15 | +14 | 23 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 15 | +8 | 21 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 15 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Cardiff | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 15 |  Wrexham | 15 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Millwall | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 17 |  Bristol City | 15 | -8 | 18 |
| 18 |  Bolton | 15 | -9 | 17 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 15 | -10 | 17 |
| 20 |  Watford | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 21 |  Lincoln | 15 | -11 | 15 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 15 | -9 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | -16 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 15 | -17 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
Our pick is Middlesbrough to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
On our numbers Bolton have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Middlesbrough 63%.
How many goals will there be in Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
When is Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
Bolton vs Middlesbrough (Championship) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.