Bundesliga · Austria · Generali ArenaAustria Vienna vs Sturm Graz prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.72 · bookmaker 1.60 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Austria Vienna to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Austria Vienna 1.3 – 1.4 Sturm Graz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz on our numbers – 36% for the home side, 40% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Austria Vienna have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.5 per game. Sturm Graz have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.3 for Austria Vienna, 1.4 for Sturm Graz). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Austria Vienna have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 7.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 58% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.60 is close to our fair price of 1.72. For a bigger price, Austria Vienna to win at 3.00 is our value angle (36% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sturm Graz to win ✓ | 40% | 2.48 | 2.20 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 58% | 1.72 | 1.60 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.35 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.97 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.34 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Sturm Graz / FT Sturm Graz ✓ | 23% | 4.41 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.26 | – |
Form
Austria Vienna – last 6
| 2 Oct | @ Admira Wacker | 6–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Grazer AK | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Austria Lustenau | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Traiskirchen | 6–0 | W |
| 2 Sep | vs WSG Wattens | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | @ Red Bull Salzburg | 1–4 | L |
Sturm Graz – last 6
| 2 Oct | vs Floridsdorfer AC | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Red Bull Salzburg | 0–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs Rennes | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Lask Linz | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Voitsberg | 4–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | @ Rapid Vienna | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
| 15 Mar 2026 | Austria Vienna v Sturm Graz | 2–5 |
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rapid Vienna | 12 | +30 | 33 |
| 2 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 12 | +24 | 30 |
| 3 |  Lask Linz | 12 | +15 | 25 |
| 4 |  TSV Hartberg | 12 | +4 | 20 |
| 5 |  Sturm Graz | 12 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 |  Ried | 12 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 |  WSG Wattens | 12 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 |  Austria Lustenau | 12 | -15 | 11 |
| 9 |  SCR Altach | 12 | -9 | 10 |
| 10 |  Grazer AK | 12 | -20 | 10 |
| 11 |  Austria Vienna | 12 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 |  Wolfsberger AC | 12 | -18 | 6 |
More Bundesliga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
On our numbers Austria Vienna have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sturm Graz 40%.
How many goals will there be in Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz (Bundesliga) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Generali Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.