Bundesliga · Austria · Josko ArenaRied vs Grazer AK prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.33 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Grazer AK to win @ 3.70 – our chance 34% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Ried 1.8 – 1.5 Grazer AK expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Ried hold the edge on home soil with a 44% chance of winning, against 34% for Grazer AK.
Ried have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.0 per game. Grazer AK have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 2.8 conceded.
We expect around 3.3 goals (1.8 for Ried, 1.5 for Grazer AK). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
In their last 3 meetings, Ried have won 1, Grazer AK have won 1 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.7 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.33 is better than our fair price of 1.29, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Grazer AK to win at 3.70 is our value angle (34% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ried to win ✓ | 44% | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 60% | 1.67 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.33 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 56% | 1.78 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.30 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 37% | 2.68 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Ried / FT Ried ✓ | 27% | 3.75 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.28 | – |
Form
Ried – last 6
| 14 Aug | @ Lask Linz | 1–4 | L |
| 9 Aug | vs Rapid Vienna | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | @ Austria Lustenau | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Jul | @ Dornbirn | 5–1 | W |
| 18 Jul | @ Mlada Boleslav | 0–4 | L |
| 17 Jul | vs Rot-Weiß Essen | 3–0 | W |
Grazer AK – last 6
| 16 Aug | @ Rapid Vienna | 0–8 | L |
| 8 Aug | vs Austria Lustenau | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Jul | @ Lask Linz | 0–3 | L |
| 25 Jul | @ Fach-Donaufeld | 4–0 | W |
| 18 Jul | vs Dynamo Dresden | 0–5 | L |
| 11 Jul | vs SV Kapfenberg | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 21 Apr 2026 | Ried v Grazer AK | 2–1 |
| 17 Apr 2026 | Grazer AK v Ried | 1–1 |
| 1 Mar 2026 | Grazer AK v Ried | 2–1 |
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rapid Vienna | 12 | +30 | 33 |
| 2 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 12 | +24 | 30 |
| 3 |  Lask Linz | 12 | +15 | 25 |
| 4 |  TSV Hartberg | 12 | +4 | 20 |
| 5 |  Sturm Graz | 12 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 |  Ried | 12 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 |  WSG Wattens | 12 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 |  Austria Lustenau | 12 | -15 | 11 |
| 9 |  SCR Altach | 12 | -9 | 10 |
| 10 |  Grazer AK | 12 | -20 | 10 |
| 11 |  Austria Vienna | 12 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 |  Wolfsberger AC | 12 | -18 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Ried vs Grazer AK?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Ried vs Grazer AK?
On our numbers Ried have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Grazer AK 34%.
How many goals will there be in Ried vs Grazer AK?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Ried vs Grazer AK?
Ried vs Grazer AK (Bundesliga) kicks off on Friday 21 August 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Josko Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.