Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Genk to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGenk to win ✗57% · @1.95
Double chanceGenk or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.12
Genk vs Gent preview and prediction
The match
The Jupiler Pro League sees Genk take on Gent on Sunday 13 September, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Cegeka Arena. Genk are 7th with 15 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Gent sit 3rd on 28 points (in the top four). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Genk's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with Anderlecht 0–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Gent's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Cercle Brugge 3–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Gent arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 1 March 2026, finished Genk 3–0 Gent.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.1 for Genk and 1.1 for Gent. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Genk 57%, draw 26%, Gent 16%.
Safer route: Genk or draw (84%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Genk to win at 1.95 – 57% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Genk or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Genk 2–1 Gent. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Genk57%fair 1.74 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @3.30
Gent16%fair 6.07 · @3.60
3.20Expected goals
2.10Genk xG
1.10Gent xG
60%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–19%
2–09%
1–09%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Genk 2.1 – 1.1 Gent expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Genk or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Genk vs Gent?
On our numbers Genk have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Gent 16%.
How many goals will there be in Genk vs Gent?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Genk vs Gent?
Our predicted score is Genk 2–1 Gent, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Genk vs Gent?
Genk vs Gent (Jupiler Pro League) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Cegeka Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
