1. SNL · Slovenia · Mestni stadion FazanerijaMura vs Aluminij prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.80 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
Value bet: Aluminij to win @ 3.30 – our chance 37% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mura 1.3 – 1.2 Aluminij expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Mura and Aluminij on our numbers – 39% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Mura have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.2 per game. Aluminij have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded. Aluminij come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.3 for Mura, 1.2 for Aluminij). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 56%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Mura have won 0, Aluminij have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 56% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.67 is close to our fair price of 1.80. For a bigger price, Aluminij to win at 3.30 is our value angle (37% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Mura to win ✗ | 39% | 2.59 | 2.05 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 56% | 1.80 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.40 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.27 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Mura / FT Mura ✗ | 21% | 4.70 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 10% | 9.64 | – |
Form
Mura – last 6
| 6 Sep | @ Maribor | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | @ Bravo | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | vs Koper | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Aug | @ Brinje-Grosuplje | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Aug | vs Radomlje | 1–3 | L |
| 1 Aug | @ Nafta | 2–5 | L |
Aluminij – last 6
| 5 Sep | vs Bravo | 0–0 | D |
| 2 Sep | vs Celje | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | vs Koper | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Aug | vs Brinje-Grosuplje | 4–2 | W |
| 16 Aug | @ Radomlje | 3–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | vs Nafta | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 16 Apr 2026 | Aluminij v Mura | 2–1 |
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Koper | 15 | +13 | 29 |
| 2 |  Maribor | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 3 |  Celje | 14 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 |  Olimpija Ljubljana | 15 | +4 | 23 |
| 5 |  Bravo | 15 | +1 | 23 |
| 6 |  Nafta | 15 | -2 | 19 |
| 7 |  Aluminij | 15 | +7 | 17 |
| 8 |  Brinje-Grosuplje | 15 | -9 | 16 |
| 9 |  Mura | 15 | -11 | 14 |
| 10 |  Radomlje | 14 | -15 | 8 |
More 1. SNL predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mura vs Aluminij?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Mura vs Aluminij?
On our numbers Mura have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Aluminij 37%.
How many goals will there be in Mura vs Aluminij?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Mura vs Aluminij?
Mura vs Aluminij (1. SNL) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Mestni stadion Fazanerija.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.