1. SNL · Slovenia · Sportni park AluminijAluminij vs Brinje-Grosuplje prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.30 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Aluminij to win @ 2.34 – our chance 46% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Aluminij 1.3 – 1.0 Brinje-Grosuplje expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Aluminij hold the edge on home soil with a 46% chance of winning, against 32% for Brinje-Grosuplje.
Aluminij have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2 per game. Brinje-Grosuplje have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 0.8 scored and 2.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.3 for Aluminij, 1.0 for Brinje-Grosuplje). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Aluminij have won 1, Brinje-Grosuplje have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.33. For a bigger price, Aluminij to win at 2.34 is our value angle (46% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Aluminij to win ✓ | 46% | 2.18 | 2.34 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 54% | 1.84 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.43 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 55% | 1.82 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 75% | 1.33 | 1.30 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.20 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Aluminij / FT Aluminij ✗ | 25% | 4.00 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.00 | – |
Form
Aluminij – last 6
| 16 Aug | @ Radomlje | 3–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | vs Nafta | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | @ Olimpija Ljubljana | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Jul | @ Dinamo Tirana | 0–3 | L |
| 23 Jul | vs Dinamo Tirana | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Jul | vs Maribor | 0–0 | D |
Brinje-Grosuplje – last 6
| 16 Aug | vs Mura | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | @ Bravo | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | vs Koper | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Jul | @ Maribor | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Jul | @ Radomlje | 2–0 | W |
| 2 Jul | vs Dinamo Zagreb | 0–9 | L |
Head to head
| 13 May 2026 | Brinje-Grosuplje v Aluminij | 0–1 |
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Koper | 15 | +13 | 29 |
| 2 |  Maribor | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 3 |  Celje | 14 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 |  Olimpija Ljubljana | 15 | +4 | 23 |
| 5 |  Bravo | 15 | +1 | 23 |
| 6 |  Nafta | 15 | -2 | 19 |
| 7 |  Aluminij | 15 | +7 | 17 |
| 8 |  Brinje-Grosuplje | 15 | -9 | 16 |
| 9 |  Mura | 15 | -11 | 14 |
| 10 |  Radomlje | 14 | -15 | 8 |
More 1. SNL predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Aluminij vs Brinje-Grosuplje?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Aluminij vs Brinje-Grosuplje?
On our numbers Aluminij have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Brinje-Grosuplje 32%.
How many goals will there be in Aluminij vs Brinje-Grosuplje?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Aluminij vs Brinje-Grosuplje?
Aluminij vs Brinje-Grosuplje (1. SNL) kicks off on Friday 21 August 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Sportni park Aluminij.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.