Championship · ScotlandRaith Rovers vs Dunfermline prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Raith Rovers 1.0 – 1.2 Dunfermline expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Dunfermline shade it despite being away from home – 44% to win, against 34% for Raith Rovers.
Raith Rovers have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.8 per game. Dunfermline have 14 points from their last 6 (4W 2D 0L), averaging 2.0 scored and 0.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.0 for Raith Rovers, 1.2 for Dunfermline). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 59% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (13%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Raith Rovers have won 0, Dunfermline have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 79% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.27.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Dunfermline to win ✗ | 44% | 2.26 | 2.35 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.95 | 1.83 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 67% | 1.50 | 1.36 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.68 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 47% | 2.11 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Dunfermline / FT Dunfermline ✗ | 23% | 4.29 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 13% | 7.46 | – |
Form
Raith Rovers – last 6
| 3 Nov | @ Hamilton Academical | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Oct | @ Arbroath | 4–0 | W |
| 24 Oct | vs Inverness CT | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | @ Stenhousemuir | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Queen's Park | 2–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | @ Morton | 2–1 | W |
Dunfermline – last 6
| 3 Nov | @ Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic | 4–2 | W |
| 31 Oct | vs Inverness CT | 5–1 | W |
| 27 Oct | @ Stenhousemuir | 1–0 | W |
| 24 Oct | @ Queen's Park | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs Partick | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Livingston | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 28 Aug 2026 | Dunfermline v Raith Rovers | 1–0 |
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Partick | 14 | +11 | 28 |
| 2 |  Raith Rovers | 14 | +11 | 25 |
| 3 |  Dunfermline | 14 | +8 | 25 |
| 4 |  Stenhousemuir | 14 | 0 | 23 |
| 5 |  Livingston | 14 | +7 | 21 |
| 6 |  Inverness CT | 14 | +1 | 20 |
| 7 |  Ayr Utd | 13 | -4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Arbroath | 14 | -12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Morton | 13 | -7 | 13 |
| 10 |  Queen's Park | 14 | -15 | 7 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline?
On our numbers Raith Rovers have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Dunfermline 44%.
How many goals will there be in Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline?
Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline (Championship) kicks off on Friday 6 November 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.