Championship · Scotland · Cappielow Park

Morton

LWWWL
4–3
FT

Stenhousemuir

WLLLD

Morton vs Stenhousemuir prediction & analysis

76%
Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.28 · Lost ✗

8/10Rating
1.28Odds
1

Value bet: Morton to win @ 2.55 – our chance 43% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Quick tips for this match

ResultMorton to win ✓43% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.58

Win chances

Morton43%fair 2.32 · @2.55
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.10
Stenhousemuir35%fair 2.87 · @2.45
2.40Expected goals
1.28Morton xG
1.12Stenhousemuir xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–07%

From our goals model: Morton 1.3 – 1.1 Stenhousemuir expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Morton hold the edge on home soil with a 43% chance of winning, against 35% for Stenhousemuir.

Morton have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (3W 0D 3L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 per game. Stenhousemuir have 4 points from their last 6 (1W 1D 4L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded. Morton come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 2.4 goals (1.3 for Morton, 1.1 for Stenhousemuir). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (10%).

In their last 1 meeting, Morton have won 0, Stenhousemuir have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 76% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is close to our fair price of 1.32. For a bigger price, Morton to win at 2.55 is our value angle (43% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMorton to win ✓43%2.322.55 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78%1.281.28
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓52%1.931.83
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓70%1.431.33
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗55%1.801.75
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76%1.321.28
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓45%2.22–
Half-time / full-timeHT Morton / FT Morton ✗23%4.31–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12%8.58–

Form

Morton – last 6

LWWWLL
3 Novvs Kelty Hearts0–1L
31 Oct@ Partick3–2W
17 Octvs Queen's Park2–0W
10 Oct@ Arbroath2–1W
3 Octvs Raith Rovers1–2L
25 Sep@ Inverness CT0–2L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Stenhousemuir – last 6

WLLLDL
3 Novvs Berwick Rangers4–1W
30 Octvs Livingston0–3L
27 Octvs Dunfermline0–1L
24 Oct@ Partick0–3L
17 Octvs Raith Rovers1–1D
10 Oct@ Inverness CT0–2L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

8 Aug 2026Stenhousemuir v Morton2–0

More Championship predictions

FT Arbroath4 Ayr Utd1 302248 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.25 ✗ FT Inverness CT1 Livingston1 452234 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.33 ✓ FT Queen's Park0 Partick1 92269 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 69%@1.50 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Morton vs Stenhousemuir?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win Morton vs Stenhousemuir?

On our numbers Morton have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Stenhousemuir 35%.

How many goals will there be in Morton vs Stenhousemuir?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

When is Morton vs Stenhousemuir?

Morton vs Stenhousemuir (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Cappielow Park.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.