Championship · Scotland · Gayfield Park

Arbroath

WLLLL
4–1
FT

Ayr Utd

WWLDW

Arbroath vs Ayr Utd prediction & analysis

77%
Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗

8/10Rating
1.25Odds
2

Value bet: Ayr Utd to win @ 2.30 – our chance 48% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultAyr Utd to win ✗48% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.69

Win chances

Arbroath30%fair 3.36 · @2.75
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.20
Ayr Utd48%fair 2.07 · @2.30
2.35Expected goals
0.99Arbroath xG
1.37Ayr Utd xG
48%Both score
43%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

0–113%
1–113%
0–010%
1–09%
0–29%
1–29%

From our goals model: Arbroath 1.0 – 1.4 Ayr Utd expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Ayr Utd shade it despite being away from home – 48% to win, against 30% for Arbroath.

Arbroath have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (1W 0D 5L), scoring 0.3 and conceding 2.0 per game. Ayr Utd have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded. Ayr Utd come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 2.4 goals (1.0 for Arbroath, 1.4 for Ayr Utd). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 48%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (13%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (10%).

In their last 2 meetings, Arbroath have won 0, Ayr Utd have won 1 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.30. For a bigger price, Ayr Utd to win at 2.30 is our value angle (48% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAyr Utd to win ✗48%2.072.30 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78%1.281.28
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✗52%1.931.83
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓68%1.461.36
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗57%1.761.70
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77%1.301.25
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗45%2.20–
Half-time / full-timeHT Ayr Utd / FT Ayr Utd ✗27%3.74–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13%7.69–

Form

Arbroath – last 6

WLLLLL
3 Novvs Queen of the South1–0W
31 Octvs Raith Rovers0–4L
24 Oct@ Livingston0–1L
17 Oct@ Inverness CT0–2L
10 Octvs Morton1–2L
3 Oct@ Partick0–3L
0.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Ayr Utd – last 6

WWLDWL
3 Nov@ Annan Athletic2–0W
31 Octvs Queen's Park3–2W
16 Octvs Partick0–1L
10 Octvs Dunfermline1–1D
3 Oct@ Livingston2–1W
25 Sepvs Stenhousemuir0–1L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

1 Aug 2026Ayr Utd v Arbroath2–0
3 Mar 2026Arbroath v Ayr Utd1–1

More Championship predictions

FT Inverness CT1 Livingston1 452234 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.33 ✓ FT Morton4 Stenhousemuir3 432235 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.28 ✗ FT Queen's Park0 Partick1 92269 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 69%@1.50 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Arbroath vs Ayr Utd?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Arbroath vs Ayr Utd?

On our numbers Arbroath have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Ayr Utd 48%.

How many goals will there be in Arbroath vs Ayr Utd?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.

When is Arbroath vs Ayr Utd?

Arbroath vs Ayr Utd (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Gayfield Park.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.