Championship · Scotland · Ochilview ParkStenhousemuir vs Livingston prediction & analysis
Livingston or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Livingston to win @ 1.80 – our chance 65% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Stenhousemuir 0.5 – 1.5 Livingston expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Livingston travel as clear favourites – 65% to win, against 12% for Stenhousemuir.
Stenhousemuir have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.2 per game. Livingston have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.0 goals (0.5 for Stenhousemuir, 1.5 for Livingston). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (21%), 0–2 (16%), 0–0 (14%).
In their last 2 meetings, Stenhousemuir have won 1, Livingston have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 0.5 goals per game.
Our pick is Livingston or draw at a 88% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is better than our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Livingston to win at 1.80 is our value angle (65% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Livingston to win ✓ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Double chance | Livingston or draw ✓ | 88% | 1.14 | 1.20 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.95 | 2.10 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.68 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 68% | 1.48 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.11 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Livingston / FT Livingston ✓ | 39% | 2.55 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 21% | 4.80 | – |
Form
Stenhousemuir – last 6
| 27 Oct | vs Dunfermline | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Oct | @ Partick | 0–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Raith Rovers | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | @ Inverness CT | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Sep | @ Ayr Utd | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Arbroath | 1–0 | W |
Livingston – last 6
| 24 Oct | vs Arbroath | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | @ Dunfermline | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Partick | 1–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Ayr Utd | 1–2 | L |
| 25 Sep | @ Raith Rovers | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Inverness CT | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 4 Sep 2026 | Livingston v Stenhousemuir | 0–1 |
| 25 Jul 2026 | Stenhousemuir v Livingston | 0–0 |
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Partick | 14 | +11 | 28 |
| 2 |  Raith Rovers | 14 | +11 | 25 |
| 3 |  Dunfermline | 14 | +8 | 25 |
| 4 |  Stenhousemuir | 14 | 0 | 23 |
| 5 |  Livingston | 14 | +7 | 21 |
| 6 |  Inverness CT | 14 | +1 | 20 |
| 7 |  Ayr Utd | 13 | -4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Arbroath | 14 | -12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Morton | 13 | -7 | 13 |
| 10 |  Queen's Park | 14 | -15 | 7 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Stenhousemuir vs Livingston?
Our pick is Livingston or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Stenhousemuir vs Livingston?
On our numbers Stenhousemuir have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Livingston 65%.
How many goals will there be in Stenhousemuir vs Livingston?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Stenhousemuir vs Livingston?
Stenhousemuir vs Livingston (Championship) kicks off on Friday 30 October 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Ochilview Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.