Championship · Scotland · East End ParkDunfermline vs Raith Rovers prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓
Value bet: Raith Rovers to win @ 2.62 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Dunfermline 1.0 – 1.2 Raith Rovers expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Raith Rovers shade it despite being away from home – 42% to win, against 35% for Dunfermline.
Dunfermline have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.8 per game. Raith Rovers have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.0 for Dunfermline, 1.2 for Raith Rovers). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 56%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 76% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.33 is close to our fair price of 1.32. For a bigger price, Raith Rovers to win at 2.62 is our value angle (42% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Raith Rovers to win ✗ | 42% | 2.38 | 2.62 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 56% | 1.80 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 69% | 1.44 | 1.28 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.79 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.33 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 47% | 2.13 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Raith Rovers / FT Raith Rovers ✗ | 22% | 4.48 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 13% | 7.88 | – |
Form
Dunfermline – last 6
| 22 Aug | @ Livingston | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | vs Ross County | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Aug | vs Ayr Utd | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Aug | @ Inverness CT | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Jul | @ ST Mirren | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Jul | vs Cove Rangers | 5–0 | W |
Raith Rovers – last 6
| 22 Aug | vs Ayr Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | @ Queen's Park | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Aug | vs Stenhousemuir | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Jul | vs Heart Of Midlothian | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Jul | vs Peterhead | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Jul | @ Hamilton Academical | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Dunfermline and Raith Rovers.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Partick | 14 | +11 | 28 |
| 2 |  Raith Rovers | 14 | +11 | 25 |
| 3 |  Dunfermline | 14 | +8 | 25 |
| 4 |  Stenhousemuir | 14 | 0 | 23 |
| 5 |  Livingston | 14 | +7 | 21 |
| 6 |  Inverness CT | 14 | +1 | 20 |
| 7 |  Ayr Utd | 13 | -4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Arbroath | 14 | -12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Morton | 13 | -7 | 13 |
| 10 |  Queen's Park | 14 | -15 | 7 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Dunfermline vs Raith Rovers?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Dunfermline vs Raith Rovers?
On our numbers Dunfermline have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Raith Rovers 42%.
How many goals will there be in Dunfermline vs Raith Rovers?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Dunfermline vs Raith Rovers?
Dunfermline vs Raith Rovers (Championship) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at East End Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.