1 Lyga · LithuaniaJonava vs BFA prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Fair pick · fair odds 1.92 · bookmaker 1.80 · Won ✓
Value bet: BFA to win @ 2.50 – our chance 45% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Jonava 1.3 – 1.5 BFA expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
BFA shade it despite being away from home – 45% to win, against 36% for Jonava.
Jonava have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.5 per game. BFA have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded. BFA come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.3 for Jonava, 1.5 for BFA). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 50%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Jonava have won 0, BFA have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 52% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.80 is close to our fair price of 1.92. For a bigger price, BFA to win at 2.50 is our value angle (45% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | BFA to win ✗ | 45% | 2.21 | 2.50 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 81% | 1.24 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 50% | 1.99 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.92 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.42 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 42% | 2.39 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT BFA / FT BFA ✗ | 25% | 4.03 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.47 | – |
Form
Jonava – last 6
| 10 Oct | @ Babrungas | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs Tauras | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Sep | @ Neptūną Klaipėda | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Sep | vs Dainava | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | @ Transinvest 2 | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Aug | vs FA Šiauliai II | 0–1 | L |
BFA – last 6
| 9 Oct | vs Žalgiris II | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | @ Atmosfera | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | @ Garliava | 3–2 | W |
| 4 Sep | vs Babrungas | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | @ Tauras | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | vs Neptūną Klaipėda | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 30 May 2026 | BFA v Jonava | 1–0 |
1 Lyga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Minija | 30 | +57 | 74 |
| 2 |  Babrungas | 30 | +42 | 74 |
| 3 |  Be1 NFA | 30 | +20 | 59 |
| 4 |  Žalgiris II | 30 | +9 | 53 |
| 5 |  Tauras | 30 | +14 | 51 |
| 6 |  BFA | 30 | +5 | 50 |
| 7 |  Dainava | 30 | +15 | 48 |
| 8 |  Neptūną Klaipėda | 30 | -4 | 45 |
| 9 |  Atmosfera | 30 | +10 | 41 |
| 10 |  Jonava | 30 | -7 | 32 |
| 11 |  Garliava | 30 | -5 | 30 |
| 12 |  Kauno Žalgiris II | 30 | -23 | 29 |
| 13 |  Transinvest 2 | 30 | -28 | 29 |
| 14 |  Hegelmann II | 30 | -29 | 28 |
| 15 |  FA Šiauliai II | 30 | -38 | 18 |
| 16 |  Ekranas | 30 | -38 | 18 |
More 1 Lyga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Jonava vs BFA?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Jonava vs BFA?
On our numbers Jonava have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 19% and BFA 45%.
How many goals will there be in Jonava vs BFA?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Jonava vs BFA?
Jonava vs BFA (1 Lyga) kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.