Prva Liga · Serbia · Gradski stadionNaftagas vs Napredak prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Fair pick · fair odds 1.81 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
Value bet: Naftagas to win @ 2.50 – our chance 45% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Naftagas 1.4 – 1.1 Napredak expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Naftagas hold the edge on home soil with a 45% chance of winning, against 33% for Napredak.
Naftagas have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.0 per game. Napredak have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.4 for Naftagas, 1.1 for Napredak). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 48%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (9%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 55% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.67 is close to our fair price of 1.81. For a bigger price, Naftagas to win at 2.50 is our value angle (45% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Naftagas to win ✗ | 45% | 2.21 | 2.50 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.91 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 71% | 1.40 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.27 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Naftagas / FT Naftagas ✗ | 25% | 3.98 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 8.82 | – |
Form
Naftagas – last 6
| 4 Oct | @ FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 6–0 | W |
| 28 Sep | vs Jedinstvo Ub | 3–0 | W |
| 21 Sep | @ Javor | 2–4 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs TSC Backa Topola | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Sep | @ Teleoptik | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Metalac GM | 0–0 | D |
Napredak – last 6
| 5 Oct | vs Loznica | 3–0 | W |
| 29 Sep | @ FK Vozdovac | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Sep | vs Semendrija 1924 | 1–4 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs OFK Vršac | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sep | @ FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Jedinstvo Ub | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Naftagas and Napredak.
Prva Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borac Cacak | 17 | +10 | 36 |
| 2 |  Javor | 17 | +20 | 34 |
| 3 |  TSC Backa Topola | 17 | +18 | 34 |
| 4 |  OFK Vršac | 17 | +5 | 30 |
| 5 |  Dubočica | 17 | 0 | 26 |
| 6 |  Semendrija 1924 | 17 | 0 | 25 |
| 7 |  Napredak | 17 | -1 | 25 |
| 8 |  FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 17 | -3 | 23 |
| 9 |  Naftagas | 17 | +6 | 22 |
| 10 |  FK Vozdovac | 17 | 0 | 20 |
| 11 |  Loznica | 17 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 |  Metalac GM | 17 | -6 | 19 |
| 13 |  Jedinstvo Ub | 17 | -6 | 18 |
| 14 |  Grafičar | 17 | -5 | 17 |
| 15 |  Teleoptik | 17 | -9 | 14 |
| 16 |  OFK Bor 1919 | 17 | -25 | 8 |
More Prva Liga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Naftagas vs Napredak?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Naftagas vs Napredak?
On our numbers Naftagas have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Napredak 33%.
How many goals will there be in Naftagas vs Napredak?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
When is Naftagas vs Napredak?
Naftagas vs Napredak (Prva Liga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Gradski stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.