Ekstraklasa · Poland · Stadion Miejski w BiałymstokuJagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
Value bet: Gornik Zabrze to win @ 2.62 – our chance 44% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Jagiellonia 1.3 – 1.6 Gornik Zabrze expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Gornik Zabrze shade it despite being away from home – 44% to win, against 34% for Jagiellonia.
Jagiellonia have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (1W 0D 5L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 per game. Gornik Zabrze have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. Gornik Zabrze come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.9 goals (1.3 for Jagiellonia, 1.6 for Gornik Zabrze). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 62%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Jagiellonia have won 0, Gornik Zabrze have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 62% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.57 is close to our fair price of 1.62. For a bigger price, Gornik Zabrze to win at 2.62 is our value angle (44% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Gornik Zabrze to win ✓ | 44% | 2.26 | 2.62 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.82 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 67% | 1.48 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 41% | 2.47 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Gornik Zabrze / FT Gornik Zabrze ✗ | 26% | 3.92 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 11.10 | – |
Form
Jagiellonia – last 6
| 3 Oct | vs Polonia Warszawa | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Legia Warszawa | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | @ Olympiakos Piraeus | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sep | @ Wisla Krakow | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Slask Wroclaw | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sep | @ Lech Poznan | 1–2 | L |
Gornik Zabrze – last 6
| 2 Oct | vs Odra Opole | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | @ Motor Lublin | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Sep | @ Korona Kielce | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Lech Poznan | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Cracovia Krakow | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Sep | @ Raków Częstochowa | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 24 Apr 2026 | Jagiellonia v Gornik Zabrze | 1–2 |
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lech Poznan | 13 | +21 | 32 |
| 2 |  Gornik Zabrze | 14 | +11 | 31 |
| 3 |  Legia Warszawa | 14 | +10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Pogon Szczecin | 13 | +5 | 24 |
| 5 |  Wisla Krakow | 14 | +3 | 24 |
| 6 |  Zaglebie Lubin | 14 | +1 | 23 |
| 7 |  Piast Gliwice | 14 | +4 | 22 |
| 8 |  GKS Katowice | 14 | +5 | 21 |
| 9 |  Jagiellonia | 13 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 |  Motor Lublin | 14 | -2 | 19 |
| 11 |  Korona Kielce | 14 | -7 | 18 |
| 12 |  Wisla Plock | 13 | -7 | 15 |
| 13 |  Widzew Łódź | 14 | +1 | 14 |
| 14 |  Radomiak Radom | 14 | -12 | 14 |
| 15 |  Cracovia Krakow | 14 | -7 | 12 |
| 16 |  Raków Częstochowa | 14 | -8 | 12 |
| 17 |  Slask Wroclaw | 14 | -8 | 10 |
| 18 |  Wieczysta Kraków | 14 | -10 | 8 |
More Ekstraklasa predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze?
On our numbers Jagiellonia have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Gornik Zabrze 44%.
How many goals will there be in Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
When is Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.