Ligue 1 · France · Parc des Princes

Paris Saint Germain

WWWWW

1–0

Estac Troyes

WDLLL

Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes prediction & analysis

69%

Footrivo pick

Over 2.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.46 · bookmaker 1.33 · Lost ✗

7/10Rating

1.33Odds

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultParis Saint Germain to win ✓74% · @1.14

Double chanceParis Saint Germain or draw ✓94% · @1.02

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.00

GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗69% · @1.33

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗12% · fair 8.51

Win chances

Paris Saint Germain74%fair 1.35 · @1.14

Draw20%fair 5.01 · @8.00

Estac Troyes6%fair 17.16 · @17.00

3.36Expected goals

2.60Paris Saint Germain xG

0.76Estac Troyes xG

54%Both score

69%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

2–012%

3–010%

1–09%

2–19%

3–18%

1–17%

From our goals model: Paris Saint Germain 2.6 – 0.8 Estac Troyes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Paris Saint Germain are clear favourites at home with a 74% chance of winning, against 6% for Estac Troyes.

Paris Saint Germain have taken 18 points from their last 6 matches (6W 0D 0L), scoring 4.0 and conceding 1.0 per game. Estac Troyes have 4 points from their last 6 (1W 1D 4L), averaging 0.5 scored and 1.5 conceded. Paris Saint Germain come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 3.4 goals (2.6 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.8 for Estac Troyes). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (12%), 3–0 (10%), 1–0 (9%).

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 69% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.33 is close to our fair price of 1.46. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.00 is our value angle (54% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Paris Saint Germain to win ✓	74%	1.35	1.14
Double chance	Paris Saint Germain or draw ✓	94%	1.06	1.02
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	54%	1.86	2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	86%	1.17	1.10
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	69%	1.46	1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	53%	1.88	1.91
Half-time result	Paris Saint Germain ahead at half-time ✓	57%	1.76	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Paris Saint Germain / FT Paris Saint Germain ✓	53%	1.88	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–0 ✗	12%	8.51	–

Form

Paris Saint Germain – last 6

WWWWWW

3 Nov	@ Villarreal	6–0	W
30 Oct	@ Le Havre	5–1	W
26 Oct	vs Lyon	2–0	W
20 Oct	vs Barcelona	4–2	W
17 Oct	@ Strasbourg	3–1	W
14 Oct	@ Manchester City	4–2	W

4.0Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

67%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Estac Troyes – last 6

WDLLLL

31 Oct	vs Le Mans	2–0	W
24 Oct	@ Toulouse	0–0	D
17 Oct	vs Lens	1–3	L
11 Oct	vs Marseille	0–2	L
19 Sep	@ Angers	0–2	L
13 Sep	@ Lille	0–2	L

0.5Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

17%Both scored

17%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes.

Ligue 1 table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	+12	23
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	+7	21
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	+7	20
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	+8	18
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+6	17
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+2	16
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	0	16
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	4	3	3	+6	15
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	+1	15
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	+2	13
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	+1	13
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	-4	10
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-11	10
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	-7	8
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	-10	8
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	-10	8
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	-13	2

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Auxerre0

Paris FC1 202060 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 80%@1.22 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.

Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes?

On our numbers Paris Saint Germain have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Estac Troyes 6%.

How many goals will there be in Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes?

We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

When is Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes?

Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes (Ligue 1) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Parc des Princes.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.