Ligue 1 · France · Stade Louis IIMonaco vs Lens prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Monaco 1.6 – 1.3 Lens expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Monaco hold the edge on home soil with a 47% chance of winning, against 33% for Lens.
Monaco have taken 16 points from their last 6 matches (5W 1D 0L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 0.8 per game. Lens have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.5 conceded. Monaco come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.9 goals (1.6 for Monaco, 1.3 for Lens). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 62%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Monaco have won 1, Lens have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 5.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 62% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is close to our fair price of 1.62.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Monaco to win ✓ | 47% | 2.13 | 2.05 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.29 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.82 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.48 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 40% | 2.47 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Monaco / FT Monaco ✓ | 27% | 3.72 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✓ | 9% | 10.87 | – |
Form
Monaco – last 6
| 12 Sep | @ Strasbourg | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Sep | @ Paris Saint Germain | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | vs Marseille | 2–0 | W |
| 27 Aug | vs Gornik Zabrze | 4–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | @ Le Havre | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Aug | @ Gornik Zabrze | 3–2 | W |
Lens – last 6
| 13 Sep | @ Le Mans | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Sep | @ Slavia Praha | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Lorient | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | @ Strasbourg | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | vs Auxerre | 5–2 | W |
| 16 Aug | vs Paris Saint Germain | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 21 Feb 2026 | Lens v Monaco | 2–3 |
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 |  Lille | 10 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Paris FC | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Marseille | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Lyon | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  Nice | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  Rennes | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 10 |  Lorient | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 |  Lens | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 10 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 |  Le Mans | 10 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Angers | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 10 | -13 | 2 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Monaco vs Lens?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Monaco vs Lens?
On our numbers Monaco have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Lens 33%.
How many goals will there be in Monaco vs Lens?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
When is Monaco vs Lens?
Monaco vs Lens (Ligue 1) kicks off on Friday 18 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Louis II.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.