Eredivisie · Netherlands · Stadion de GoffertNEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior prediction & analysis
NEC Nijmegen to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: NEC Nijmegen 2.5 – 1.1 Excelsior expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
NEC Nijmegen are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 14% for Excelsior.
NEC Nijmegen have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.0 per game. Excelsior have 15 points from their last 6 (5W 0D 1L), averaging 3.3 scored and 1.2 conceded. Excelsior come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.6 goals (2.5 for NEC Nijmegen, 1.1 for Excelsior). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 3–1 (8%).
Our pick is NEC Nijmegen to win at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is close to our fair price of 1.53.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | NEC Nijmegen to win ✗ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.50 |
| Double chance | NEC Nijmegen or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 64% | 1.57 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 88% | 1.14 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.42 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.97 | – |
| Half-time result | NEC Nijmegen ahead at half-time ✗ | 50% | 1.99 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT NEC Nijmegen / FT NEC Nijmegen ✗ | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 10.67 | – |
Form
NEC Nijmegen – last 6
| 5 Sep | vs Feyenoord | 1–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | @ PEC Zwolle | 3–1 | W |
| 25 Aug | @ BodoGlimt | 0–3 | L |
| 19 Aug | vs BodoGlimt | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | @ Willem II | 4–1 | W |
| 11 Aug | vs Olympiakos Piraeus | 1–1 | D |
Excelsior – last 6
| 5 Sep | @ Willem II | 3–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Sparta Rotterdam | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | vs PSV Eindhoven | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Aug | @ Cambuur | 4–0 | W |
| 1 Aug | @ De Graafschap | 5–1 | W |
| 24 Jul | @ Heracles | 5–3 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 12 | +25 | 26 |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 12 | +19 | 25 |
| 3 |  Ajax | 12 | +17 | 25 |
| 4 |  Twente | 12 | +18 | 24 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 12 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 |  Heerenveen | 12 | +8 | 21 |
| 7 |  Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 |  Groningen | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Cambuur | 12 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 |  Utrecht | 12 | -13 | 12 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 12 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 12 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 12 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 12 | -29 | 3 |
More Eredivisie predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
Our pick is NEC Nijmegen to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
On our numbers NEC Nijmegen have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Excelsior 14%.
How many goals will there be in NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
When is NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior (Eredivisie) kicks off on Tuesday 8 September 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadion de Goffert.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.