Eerste Divisie · Netherlands · De GeusseltMVV vs Vitesse prediction & analysis
Vitesse to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.94
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: MVV 1.1 – 2.0 Vitesse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Vitesse travel as clear favourites – 61% to win, against 25% for MVV.
MVV have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.2 per game. Vitesse have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded. Vitesse come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.1 goals (1.1 for MVV, 2.0 for Vitesse). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 1–2 (10%), 0–1 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, MVV have won 0, Vitesse have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 0.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Vitesse to win at a 61% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.94 is better than our fair price of 1.64, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Vitesse to win | 61% | 1.64 | 1.94 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 85% | 1.17 | 1.24 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 65% | 1.55 | 1.51 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.24 | 1.14 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.69 | 1.58 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 62% | 1.61 | 1.47 |
| Half-time result | Vitesse ahead at half-time | 42% | 2.36 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Vitesse / FT Vitesse | 36% | 2.77 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 | 10% | 10.11 | – |
Form
MVV – last 6
| 8 Nov | @ Emmen | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Oct | vs VVV Venlo | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Oct | vs Excelsior | 0–3 | L |
| 23 Oct | @ Den Bosch | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Heracles | 1–5 | L |
| 9 Oct | @ NAC Breda | 0–1 | L |
Vitesse – last 6
| 2 Nov | @ Jong Ajax | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Oct | @ VVV Venlo | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Oct | vs Emmen | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Oct | @ FC Eindhoven | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | @ FC Volendam | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs NAC Breda | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 17 Apr 2026 | Vitesse v MVV | 0–0 |
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 14 | +29 | 35 |
| 2 |  VVV Venlo | 14 | +15 | 29 |
| 3 |  Almere City FC | 14 | +16 | 28 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 14 | +5 | 25 |
| 5 |  Roda | 14 | +1 | 25 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 14 | 0 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 14 | +9 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Den Bosch | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 10 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 11 |  Waalwijk | 14 | +3 | 17 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 |  De Graafschap | 13 | -10 | 15 |
| 16 |  FC OSS | 14 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 |  Helmond Sport | 14 | -6 | 12 |
| 18 |  Dordrecht | 14 | -16 | 12 |
| 19 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 |  FC Eindhoven | 14 | -13 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for MVV vs Vitesse?
Our pick is Vitesse to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.94.
Who will win MVV vs Vitesse?
On our numbers MVV have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Vitesse 61%.
How many goals will there be in MVV vs Vitesse?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
When is MVV vs Vitesse?
MVV vs Vitesse (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at De Geusselt.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.